Beige Book Shows Robust Price Growth in 3 Fed Districts Before Oct 28 Vote

The Fed's October 14 Beige Book found price growth robust in three of twelve districts and picking up in four, with higher oil prices in every district report.
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The Fed's October 14 Beige Book found price growth robust in three of twelve districts and picking up in four, with higher oil prices in every district report.

Federal Reserve Board minutes show Reserve Bank requests for a 4.00% discount rate grew from two banks in August to seven by the September 16 meeting.

Treasury bills ended fiscal 2026 at $7.118 trillion, or 22.36% of marketable federal debt, the largest fiscal year end share since 2020. Bills grew $721.1 billion over the year.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said 16 of 18 officials who filed September projections expect another 2026 rate increase, and that the hikes need not come at back to back meetings.

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting show a unanimous 12 to 0 vote to raise rates and most officials expecting one more increase before the end of 2026.

The Federal Reserve's G.19 release shows consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July 2026, pushing revolving card balances to a record $1.3572 trillion a week before the September 16 FOMC decision.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

U.S. retail and food services sales fell 0.6 percent in July to $763.6 billion, the largest monthly decline since May 2025, weakening the case for a September Fed rate increase.

Households expect 3.6% inflation over the next year, the New York Fed's July survey shows, with three-year and five-year readings flat ahead of Wednesday's CPI report.

Interest rate swaps now imply about a 40% chance the Fed hikes on July 29 after Citadel Securities forecast a surprise increase. Here is what a hike or hold means.