Fed Balance Sheet Settles Near $6.7 Trillion After Quantitative Tightening

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet held near $6.74 trillion on June 24, 2026, after quantitative tightening ended in December. Here is what it means for your rates.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet held near $6.74 trillion on June 24, 2026, after quantitative tightening ended in December. Here is what it means for your rates.

Treasury sold $44 billion of seven-year notes June 25 at a 4.260% high yield and 2.50 bid-to-cover, with indirect demand cooling to 57.6% as domestic direct bidders stepped in.

The two-year Treasury yield rose to its highest since February 2025 on June 22 as markets repriced toward a 2026 Fed rate hike ahead of Thursday's May PCE report.

Treasury sold $13 billion of 20-year bonds at a 4.927% high yield on June 16, drawing a 2.75 bid-to-cover and 71.2% indirect demand, the strongest 20-year sale since January.

The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and the prime rate at 6.75% on June 17, with the new dot plot and a hot May inflation print the real story.

May CPI rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the year, the first 4% reading since 2023. Core held at 2.9% as the Fed heads into its June 16-17 meeting.

The average rate on U.S. interest-bearing debt rose to 3.353% in May, the highest since October 2025, as low-coupon debt refinances into higher market yields.

U.S. public debt crossed $39 trillion in May 2026. With new Treasury issues yielding above 4.4% and the average rate at 3.34%, CBO projects net interest above $1 trillion this year.

The Department of Justice closed its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building renovations last week, removing the procedural obstacle that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) had cited as the basis for blocking Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair from…

Markets price a 99.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29, 2026 — meaning for most household financial decisions, your numbers don’t change on Wednesday afternoon. Specifically: the prime rate stays at 6.75%, your…