Treasury 2-Year Yield Falls to 4.13% as Cool CPI, PPI Trim July Hike Bets

The two-year Treasury yield fell to 4.13% after June CPI and PPI cooled, trimming the odds of a July Fed rate hike. Here is what lower yields mean for your money.

The two-year Treasury yield fell to 4.13% after June CPI and PPI cooled, trimming the odds of a July Fed rate hike. Here is what lower yields mean for your money.

The Fed's dual mandate requires both maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. With core PCE at 3.4 percent and unemployment at 4.2 percent, the two goals now clash.

The Fed has held rates since December, yet the 30-year mortgage sits at 6.49%. Here is how a Fed decision travels through the 10-year Treasury and the spread to your loan.

Treasury sold $58 billion of three-year notes at a 4.179% high yield on July 7, 2026, with indirect demand firming and prime steady at 6.75% ahead of the June FOMC minutes.

The U.S. Treasury sold $2.46 trillion across 37 auctions in June 2026. Here is how Treasury auctions actually work, who buys, and how results reach your rates.

ADP said private employers added just 98,000 jobs in June, below the 110,000 consensus and down from 122,000 in May, sharpening the Fed's July 28 to 29 rate decision.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet held near $6.74 trillion on June 24, 2026, after quantitative tightening ended in December. Here is what it means for your rates.

Treasury sold $44 billion of seven-year notes June 25 at a 4.260% high yield and 2.50 bid-to-cover, with indirect demand cooling to 57.6% as domestic direct bidders stepped in.

The two-year Treasury yield rose to its highest since February 2025 on June 22 as markets repriced toward a 2026 Fed rate hike ahead of Thursday's May PCE report.

Treasury sold $13 billion of 20-year bonds at a 4.927% high yield on June 16, drawing a 2.75 bid-to-cover and 71.2% indirect demand, the strongest 20-year sale since January.