Two-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since February 2025 Before May PCE

The two-year Treasury yield rose to its highest since February 2025 on June 22 as markets repriced toward a 2026 Fed rate hike ahead of Thursday's May PCE report.

The two-year Treasury yield rose to its highest since February 2025 on June 22 as markets repriced toward a 2026 Fed rate hike ahead of Thursday's May PCE report.

Treasury sold $13 billion of 20-year bonds at a 4.927% high yield on June 16, drawing a 2.75 bid-to-cover and 71.2% indirect demand, the strongest 20-year sale since January.

The FOMC is expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and the prime rate at 6.75% on June 17, with the new dot plot and a hot May inflation print the real story.

May CPI rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the year, the first 4% reading since 2023. Core held at 2.9% as the Fed heads into its June 16-17 meeting.

The average rate on U.S. interest-bearing debt rose to 3.353% in May, the highest since October 2025, as low-coupon debt refinances into higher market yields.

U.S. public debt crossed $39 trillion in May 2026. With new Treasury issues yielding above 4.4% and the average rate at 3.34%, CBO projects net interest above $1 trillion this year.

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