US National Debt Guide

US Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Live Tracker

Chris Kissell  |  Reviewed by Mitch Strohm  |  Updated: June 18, 2026

US Debt-to-GDP Ratio — Live

US Federal Debt as % of GDP

123.4775%

As of June 16, 2026 · Debt $39.29T ÷ GDP $31.82T (Q1 2026 BEA)

Change Today

+0.01 pp

Change YTD (FY26)

+3.0 pp

Vs. 2007 (pre-GFC)

+60 pp

Total Debt/GDP

123.5%

$39.29T / $31.82T

Public Debt/GDP

99.4%

Held by public

Intragov / GDP

24.0%

Trust funds

Interest / GDP

3.3%

$1.05T annual

Daily Briefing — June 18, 2026

Updated daily

The US debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 123.5%, calculated from $39.29 trillion in total federal debt against $31.82 trillion in current-dollar GDP (BEA advance Q1 2026 estimate). The ratio has risen 3.0 percentage points since the start of FY26 in October and is up roughly 60 percentage points from the pre-Great-Recession level of 63% in 2007. The “danger zone” thresholds cited in IMF and Reinhart-Rogoff research are 90% (slower growth) and 130% (sovereign-stress range) — the US is now above the first and within striking distance of the second.

Internationally, the US ratio (123.5%) ranks second among major developed economies, trailing only Japan (~255%) and ahead of Italy (~135%), France (~111%), Spain (~106%), UK (~101%), Canada (~106%), and Germany (~62%). Unlike Japan, however, almost 30% of US debt is held by foreign investors — primarily Japan ($1.13T), China ($0.74T), and the UK ($0.83T) — making the US sensitive to global appetite for Treasury debt in a way Japan is not. See the foreign holdings tracker for the full breakdown.

Why it matters: every 1-percentage-point rise in debt/GDP makes future borrowing marginally more expensive as investors price in higher sovereign risk. With 3.3% of GDP already going to interest payments — about $1.05 trillion per year and now exceeding the entire defense budget — every percentage point added to the ratio compounds the fiscal pressure. See the live interest tracker for daily detail, the US Debt Clock — Cluster Overview for the full picture, or the current prime rate dashboard for how borrowing costs are filtering into consumer rates.

FOMC: July 28-29, 2026
Treasury Auction: Jun 1
Debt Ceiling: Jan 2027
Prime Rate:6.75%

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is about 123.1% as of May 27, 2026 — the $39.16 trillion national debt is roughly 1.23 times the size of the entire U.S. economy (GDP near $31.8 trillion). This ratio is the standard yardstick economists use to judge whether a country’s debt is sustainable, because it measures debt against the income available to service it. This page tracks the ratio live, shows how it has changed over time, and compares the U.S. with other major economies.

Key Takeaways

  • The debt-to-GDP ratio is about 123.1% — debt of $39.16T against GDP near $31.8T. The U.S. crossed 100% in 2013 and has not fallen below it since.
  • It has climbed from about 58% in 2000 and 63% in 2007, peaked near 126% during the 2020 COVID response, and sits just below that peak today.
  • Researchers (IMF, Reinhart-Rogoff) flag 90% as a growth drag and ~130% as a stress range; the U.S. is above the first and approaching the second.
  • Among major economies the U.S. ranks second-highest, behind Japan (~255%) and ahead of Italy, France, the UK and Germany (~62%).
  • Debt held by the public alone is about 98.8% of GDP; net interest now consumes about 3.3% of GDP. See the interest tracker.

US Debt-to-GDP Over Time & vs. the World

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has more than doubled since 2000. The table below shows total public debt as a share of GDP at key points (Federal Reserve / FRED basis), followed by how the U.S. compares with other major economies.

YearDebt-to-GDPContext
2000~58%Budget-surplus era
2007~63%Pre-financial-crisis
2010~87%Post-recession surge
2013~100%Crossed 100% for the first time
2020~126%COVID peak
2025~123%End of FY2025
May 27, 2026123.1%Today
CountryGross Debt-to-GDP
Japan~255%
Italy~135%
United States~123%
France~111%
Canada~106%
United Kingdom~101%
Germany~62%

International figures are IMF general-government gross debt (approximate, 2025); the U.S. headline figure above uses total federal public debt ÷ GDP, a broadly comparable but not identical basis.

What Is the National Debt?

The national debt is the total amount of money the federal government has borrowed and not yet repaid. When the government spends more than it collects in taxes each year (a deficit), it borrows to cover the gap by issuing Treasury securities — bills (maturity under 1 year), notes (2–10 years), bonds (20–30 years), TIPS (inflation-protected), and savings bonds. Each year’s deficit adds to the cumulative debt. The Treasury’s guide to the national debt explains the full mechanics.

The debt is fundamentally different from household debt. A family borrows against future income and must repay in full. The government borrows against the full faith and credit of the United States and can roll over maturing securities indefinitely — it never needs to pay down the principal to zero. The real question is not whether the debt can be repaid but whether the interest on it can be serviced sustainably. When interest costs consume an ever-larger share of revenue, less money remains for defense, infrastructure, education, and social programs.

The debt is tracked in real time by the Treasury’s Debt to the Penny dataset, which reports the total public debt outstanding at the close of each business day. This is the source powering the live counter at the top of this page. The data goes back to April 1993, and the Treasury also maintains a Historical Debt Outstanding dataset reaching back to 1790.

US federal debt towering over GDP pillar showing 123.1% debt-to-GDP ratio

Debt Breakdown: Public vs Intragovernmental

The national debt consists of two components, both reported daily by the Debt to the Penny dataset. Understanding the distinction matters because only debt held by the public affects financial markets and borrowing costs.

Debt held by the public ($31.36 trillion, 80.4%): Money borrowed from domestic investors (mutual funds, pension funds, banks, insurance companies, individuals), foreign governments and investors, and the Federal Reserve. These are marketable Treasury securities actively traded in the bond market. This portion drives Treasury yields and, indirectly, the prime rate and all consumer interest rates.

Intragovernmental holdings ($7.63 trillion, 19.6%): Money the government owes to its own trust funds — primarily the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (~$2.7T), Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, military retirement funds, and federal employee pension funds. When these programs collect more in payroll taxes than they pay out, the surplus is invested in special non-marketable Treasury securities.

Component Amount % of Total YoY Change
Debt held by the public $31,361,115,540,758 80.4% +4.2%
Intragovernmental holdings $7,629,274,126,731 19.6% +1.8%
Total public debt outstanding $39,163,302,863,182 100% +3.8%

National Debt by Year (2014–2025)

The debt has grown from $17.82 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2014 to $37.64 trillion by the end of FY 2025 — more than doubling in 11 years. The sharpest single-year increase was $4.23 trillion in FY 2020 (COVID pandemic response). For the complete record back to 1790, see our National Debt by Year page.

Fiscal Year Total Debt $ Increase % Change
FY 2025 $37.64T +$2.17T +6.1%
FY 2024 $35.46T +$2.30T +6.9%
FY 2023 $33.17T +$2.24T +7.2%
FY 2022 $30.93T +$2.50T +8.8%
FY 2021 $28.43T +$1.47T +5.5%
FY 2020 (COVID) $26.95T +$4.23T +18.6%
FY 2019 $22.72T +$1.20T +5.6%
FY 2018 $21.52T +$1.27T +6.3%
FY 2017 $20.24T +$672B +3.4%
FY 2016 $19.57T +$1.42T +7.8%
FY 2015 $18.15T +$327B +1.8%
FY 2014 $17.82T +$1.09T +6.5%

Interest Rates on Treasury Securities

The government pays different interest rates depending on the type and maturity of Treasury security. Short-term bills carry rates closely tied to the federal funds rate, while long-term bonds reflect market expectations for future inflation and growth. The weighted average across all outstanding debt is approximately 3.36% as of February 2026.

Security Type Avg Rate Typical Maturity
Treasury Bills 3.720% 4 weeks to 52 weeks
Treasury Notes 3.190% 2 to 10 years
Treasury Bonds 3.377% 20 to 30 years
TIPS (Inflation-Protected) 0.990% 5 to 30 years (real rate)
Floating Rate Notes (FRN) 3.748% 2 years (adjustable)
Total Marketable (weighted avg) 3.355% Blended across all maturities

At a weighted average rate of 3.36% on ~$31 trillion in marketable debt, the government pays approximately $1.04 trillion in annual interest — roughly $2.74 billion per day or $114 million per hour. This makes interest the third-largest line item in the federal budget, behind only Social Security ($1.46T) and Medicare ($1.05T), and ahead of defense ($886B). For a deep dive into interest cost trends, see our Interest on the National Debt page.

Pro Tip: The raw debt number ($39 trillion) grabs headlines but the more meaningful metric is debt-to-GDP ratio (currently 123.1%). This ratio tells you whether the country can service its debt relative to its economic output. A growing economy can sustain higher nominal debt. When the ratio crosses 100%, it means the government owes more than the entire economy produces in a year. Compare this to other nations at our Debt-to-GDP Ratio page.

Who Holds the US Debt?

Of the $31.36 trillion in debt held by the public, domestic holders own approximately 70% and foreign entities hold about 30%. The Federal Reserve is the single largest holder at approximately $4.9 trillion. For the full interactive breakdown, see Who Owns US Debt.

Holder Holdings % of Public Debt Type
Federal Reserve ~$4.9T 15.6% Domestic
US mutual funds & ETFs ~$4.5T 14.3% Domestic
State & local governments ~$1.6T 5.1% Domestic
Banks & depository institutions ~$1.3T 4.1% Domestic
Japan ~$1.1T 3.5% Foreign
China ~$760B 2.4% Foreign
United Kingdom ~$740B 2.4% Foreign
Other foreign holders ~$6.7T 21.4% Foreign
Other domestic holders ~$10.0T 31.9% Domestic

A common misconception is that China “owns” a dangerous share of U.S. debt. In reality, China holds approximately 2.4% of publicly held debt and has been steadily reducing its Treasury holdings since 2013. Japan is the larger foreign holder. The dominant holders are domestic: American mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and the Federal Reserve together hold over 70% of publicly held debt.

What Is Driving the Debt Higher?

The debt has grown from $5.67 trillion in 2000 to $39 trillion today because annual spending consistently exceeds annual revenue. Four structural factors drive this imbalance, and none of them are temporary:

1. An aging population. The baby boom generation (born 1946–1964) is retiring at a rate of 10,000 people per day through 2030. Each retiree shifts from being a taxpayer to being a beneficiary of Social Security and Medicare, simultaneously reducing revenue and increasing mandatory spending. The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projects the retirement trust fund will be depleted by 2033.

2. Rising healthcare costs. Medicare, Medicaid, and ACA subsidies collectively consume over 25% of federal spending. Healthcare costs grow faster than GDP because medical technology advances, drug prices increase, and an aging population requires more intensive care.

3. Compounding interest. Interest on the debt is now the fastest-growing federal expense. At $1 trillion annually, it exceeds the defense budget. Worse, interest payments generate new debt (the government borrows to pay interest), creating a feedback loop. Every 1% increase in the average interest rate adds approximately $310 billion in annual interest costs.

4. Insufficient tax revenue. Federal revenue averages about 17–18% of GDP while spending exceeds 23% of GDP. The gap persists regardless of which party controls Congress. For details, see our Federal Spending & Revenue page.

How the Debt Affects Your Borrowing Costs

The national debt and the prime rate (currently 6.75%) are connected through Federal Reserve policy. When the government borrows heavily, it floods the bond market with Treasury securities, pushing yields higher. Higher Treasury yields put upward pressure on mortgage rates (tied to the 10-year Treasury), while the Fed’s response to fiscal conditions affects the federal funds rate — and therefore the prime rate that controls credit card APRs, HELOCs, and SBA loan rates.

Since September 2024, the Fed has cut the federal funds rate five times (from 5.25%–5.50% to 3.50%–3.75%), bringing prime from 8.50% to 6.75%. This has lowered variable-rate borrowing costs — credit card APRs dropped from ~23% to ~21%, HELOCs declined by 1.75%, and new personal loan offers improved. However, 10-year Treasury yields have actually risen during this period because bond investors are pricing in persistent fiscal deficits.

Pro Tip: If you’re considering a major financial decision — refinancing a mortgage, taking an SBA loan, or consolidating credit card debt — watch both the Fed and the Treasury auction calendar. A surge in Treasury issuance can push yields higher and raise your borrowing costs even if the Fed holds or cuts rates. Use the Prime Rate Impact Calculator to model how rate changes affect your specific loan payments.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current US national debt?

As of March 26, 2026, the total U.S. national debt is $39,163,302,863,182 (approximately $39 trillion). This includes $31.36 trillion in debt held by the public and $7.63 trillion in intragovernmental holdings. The figure is updated daily by the Treasury Department’s Debt to the Penny dataset.

How much national debt per person?

With a U.S. population of approximately 331.5 million, each citizen’s share of the national debt is roughly $117,631. Per taxpayer (approximately 140 million individual returns filed annually per IRS data), the share rises to about $278,503. Per household (~130 million households), the share exceeds $300,000.

How fast is the national debt growing?

Based on the 30-day rolling average from Treasury data, the debt grows by approximately $6.0 billion per day, $492 million per hour, and $136,747 per second. This pace reflects annualized budget deficits exceeding $2 trillion.

What is the US debt-to-GDP ratio?

The current debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 123.1%, meaning the government owes 1.33 times the entire annual economic output of the country. The U.S. crossed the 100% threshold in 2013. Among major economies, only Japan (230%) has a higher ratio.

Who owns the US national debt?

Of the $31.36 trillion held by the public, approximately 70% is held domestically (mutual funds, the Federal Reserve at ~$4.9T, pension funds, banks, individuals) and 30% by foreign entities. Japan (~$1.1T) and China (~$760B) are the largest foreign holders.

How does the national debt affect interest rates?

Heavy government borrowing pushes Treasury yields higher, which raises mortgage rates (tied to the 10-year Treasury) and puts upward pressure on all borrowing costs. The prime rate (6.75%) is set by the Fed in response to economic conditions that include fiscal policy. When debt grows faster than GDP, yields tend to rise even if the Fed cuts short-term rates.

Sources & References

  1. U.S. Treasury — Debt to the Penny (Daily) — Primary source for total public debt
  2. U.S. Treasury — Understanding the National Debt — Educational overview
  3. U.S. Treasury — Historical Debt Outstanding — Debt data from 1790
  4. U.S. Treasury — Average Interest Rates on Treasury Securities — Monthly rate data
  5. Congressional Budget Office — Budget Projections — Deficit and debt forecasts
  6. Federal Reserve — H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances — Fed holdings data
  7. FRED — Federal Debt: Total Public Debt — Quarterly debt series
  8. FRED — Debt as Percent of GDP — Debt-to-GDP ratio series
  9. SSA — 2025 Social Security Trustees Report — Trust fund projections
  10. U.S. Census Bureau — Population Estimates — Population data for per-citizen calculations

Keep Reading

Financial Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. All debt figures are sourced from U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data (Debt to the Penny dataset) and are subject to daily revision. Interest rate data is from the Average Interest Rates on Treasury Securities dataset. GDP data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Population estimates are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Debt holder estimates are approximate and based on the most recent Treasury International Capital data and Federal Reserve H.4.1 release. Past trends do not guarantee future results. Individuals should consult with qualified financial advisors before making significant financial decisions. The author and PrimeRates.com disclaim any liability for financial decisions made based on information presented in this article.

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