Core CPI Falls to 2.4%, Lowest Since March 2021, as Hike Odds Top 65%

Core inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in August, the lowest since March 2021, but a 0.3 percent monthly gain pushed September Fed hike odds above 65 percent.

Core inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in August, the lowest since March 2021, but a 0.3 percent monthly gain pushed September Fed hike odds above 65 percent.

The Federal Reserve's G.19 release shows consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July 2026, pushing revolving card balances to a record $1.3572 trillion a week before the September 16 FOMC decision.

Treasury sells $119 billion of notes and bonds on September 8, 9 and 10 while the Fed observes its pre-meeting blackout. The three-year yields 4.45%.

The Fed's September 2 Beige Book found prices increased moderately in eight of twelve Districts, with the pace unchanged in eight and slower in only three.

The Federal Reserve Board disclosed that four Reserve Bank boards asked for a 4 percent discount rate on July 29, double the number that made the request nine days earlier.

Reserve balances at the Fed fell to $2.925 trillion in the week ended August 26, the lowest since April, as Treasury cash and portfolio runoff drained the banking system.

The Fed held $1.9307 trillion of mortgage bonds in the week ended August 19, the lowest since July 2020, as the FOMC routes all agency principal into Treasury bills.

Treasury will lift long-end bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9, 2026. The 30-year yield fell 9 basis points, then took it all back.

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell $72.1 billion in June to $9.30 trillion as China cut to $633.4 billion and Japan trimmed $26.4 billion. Prime held at 6.75%.

The federal government ran a record $432.3 billion deficit in July 2026, pushing the fiscal 2026 shortfall past $1.799 trillion, more than all of fiscal 2025 combined.