Treasury 10-Year Note Stops at 4.834%, Highest Auction Yield Since 2007

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a September hold if August inflation keeps cooling, citing three-month core inflation of 3.05 percent, and a hike if it does not.

Treasury's August 31 six-month bill cleared at 3.885 percent with primary dealers absorbing 40 percent of the sale, their largest share since December 2025.

The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34% on August 28, up 14 basis points, after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole the central bank still has work to do on inflation.

The Fed's H.6 release put M2 at a record $23.218 trillion in July 2026, up 5.41% on the year, the fastest money supply growth since June 2022.

Treasury sells $183 billion of two, five and seven-year notes August 25 to 27, the same week July PCE prints and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote.

Total public debt outstanding closed at $40,047,425,768,420.22 on August 18, 2026, the first reading above $40 trillion, 154 days after the $39 trillion crossing.

The Fed publishes its July 28 to 29 minutes on Wednesday, August 19. The Committee held rates 9 to 3, three officials wanted a hike, and prime stayed at 6.75%.

Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.216 percent on August 13, the highest yield on long-dated federal debt since 2001, as bid-to-cover slipped to 2.39.