Treasury 20-Year Auction Clears 5.42% as 10-Year Closes at 5.00%

Treasury's 20-year bond auction cleared at a record 5.420 percent with the weakest indirect share since February, and the 10-year closed at 5.00 percent.

Treasury's 20-year bond auction cleared at a record 5.420 percent with the weakest indirect share since February, and the 10-year closed at 5.00 percent.

The 2-year to 10-year Treasury spread narrowed to 33 basis points on September 11, its tightest since July 1, as the front end repriced before the September 15 and 16 FOMC meeting.

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would back a September hold if August inflation keeps cooling, citing three-month core inflation of 3.05 percent, and a hike if it does not.

Treasury's August 31 six-month bill cleared at 3.885 percent with primary dealers absorbing 40 percent of the sale, their largest share since December 2025.

The 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34% on August 28, up 14 basis points, after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole the central bank still has work to do on inflation.

The Fed's H.6 release put M2 at a record $23.218 trillion in July 2026, up 5.41% on the year, the fastest money supply growth since June 2022.

Treasury sells $183 billion of two, five and seven-year notes August 25 to 27, the same week July PCE prints and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote.

Total public debt outstanding closed at $40,047,425,768,420.22 on August 18, 2026, the first reading above $40 trillion, 154 days after the $39 trillion crossing.