Prime Rate on Track to Hold at 6.75% Ahead of the July 29 Fed Decision

The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.

The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.

The average interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt climbed to 3.41% in June 2026, the highest since 2009, pushing gross interest costs past $1.05 trillion this fiscal year.

The Fed entered its communications blackout ahead of the July 28 to 29 meeting, with markets pricing about an 87% chance of a rate hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29.

The June Producer Price Index fell 0.3% as gasoline sank 12%, the first monthly drop of 2026, sharpening the debate over the Fed's July rate decision.

June CPI lands Tuesday, July 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last major inflation reading before the July 28-29 FOMC. Here is what it means for rates, mortgages, and savings.

The U.S. Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.058% on July 9, the highest long-bond auction yield since 2007, as foreign demand took nearly 78%.

Federal net interest hit $722.7 billion in the first eight months of fiscal 2026, topping national defense by roughly $92 billion, according to Treasury data.

The national debt closed June at a record $39.46 trillion after a $117 billion one-day jump, putting the $40 trillion mark within reach as soon as this fall.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first major international appearance at the ECB's Sintra forum, keeping the U.S. prime rate at 6.75% with a hawkish inflation message.

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose in May, with headline PCE at 4.1% and core at 3.4%, the highest in years, reinforcing a hawkish hold and a steady 6.75% prime rate.