30-Year Treasury Yield Closes at 5.31%, Highest Level Since June 2007

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on August 17, the highest since June 2007. Prime held at 6.75% and federal debt neared $40 trillion.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on August 17, the highest since June 2007. Prime held at 6.75% and federal debt neared $40 trillion.

U.S. retail and food services sales fell 0.6 percent in July to $763.6 billion, the largest monthly decline since May 2025, weakening the case for a September Fed rate increase.

Treasury sold $58 billion of three-year notes at a 4.291 percent high yield on August 11, the highest since February 2025, yet demand was the strongest in nine months.

Treasury will auction $125 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities on August 11 to 13, holding coupon sizes flat as Q3 borrowing climbs to $739 billion.

U.S. labor costs rose 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026, above forecasts, keeping wage-driven inflation in play as the Fed holds and the prime rate stays at 6.75%.

Interest rate swaps now imply about a 40% chance the Fed hikes on July 29 after Citadel Securities forecast a surprise increase. Here is what a hike or hold means.

The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.

The average interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt climbed to 3.41% in June 2026, the highest since 2009, pushing gross interest costs past $1.05 trillion this fiscal year.

The Fed entered its communications blackout ahead of the July 28 to 29 meeting, with markets pricing about an 87% chance of a rate hold at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29.

The June Producer Price Index fell 0.3% as gasoline sank 12%, the first monthly drop of 2026, sharpening the debate over the Fed's July rate decision.