Treasury bill yields jumped 17 basis points at Monday’s auctions, the largest one-week increase of 2026 for both the 13-week and 26-week terms, hours before the Federal Open Market Committee opened its two-day September meeting. The Treasury Department sold $92 billion of 13-week bills at a high discount rate of 3.970 percent and $79 billion of 26-week bills at 4.060 percent on September 14, up from 3.800 percent and 3.890 percent at the same auctions one week earlier. Both stops cleared well above the effective federal funds rate of 3.63 percent, a spread that exists only when the bill market expects the policy rate to be higher before those securities mature. The 13-week stop sat 34 basis points above the effective rate and the 26-week stop sat 43 basis points above it. Treasury’s official par yield curve put the three-month bill at 4.11 percent and the six-month at 4.18 percent on Monday, the highest readings since September 2025 and July 2025. The FOMC announces its decision Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, and the front end of the curve has already moved. For anyone carrying a credit card balance or a variable-rate loan tied to the U.S. prime rate, Monday’s auctions are the clearest market signal yet of what this week’s meeting is likely to produce.
- Treasury sold 13-week bills at 3.970 percent and 26-week bills at 4.060 percent on September 14.
- Both stops rose 17.0 basis points in one week, the largest weekly jump of 2026 for each term.
- The 26-week stop cleared 43 basis points above the 3.63 percent effective federal funds rate.
- Treasury’s six-month par yield hit 4.18 percent, the highest since July 31, 2025.
- The prime rate has held at 6.75 percent for 278 days and moves only if the FOMC moves.
What Changed at Monday’s Bill Auctions
Treasury runs its 13-week and 26-week bill auctions every Monday, and the stop rate on those two securities is the cleanest available read on what the money market expects the Federal Reserve to do next. On September 14 the 13-week bill stopped at a high discount rate of 3.970 percent, equal to a 4.066 percent investment rate. The 26-week bill stopped at 4.060 percent, or a 4.203 percent investment rate. One week earlier, on September 8, the same two auctions cleared at 3.800 percent and 3.890 percent. The move was 17.0 basis points in each case. Across every 13-week and 26-week auction Treasury has held in 2026, no other week produced an increase that large.
The size of the move matters less than its direction relative to the current policy rate. The effective federal funds rate printed at 3.63 percent on September 11, inside the FOMC’s 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range that has been in place since the July 28-29 meeting. A 13-week bill that clears at 3.970 percent is telling investors that the average overnight rate over the next three months is expected to exceed today’s rate. A 26-week bill at 4.060 percent carries that expectation further out. Bill investors do not take a view on the economy in the abstract. They price the path of the funds rate, and on Monday they priced it higher.
How the Front End Repriced in Ten Days
Treasury’s official daily par yield curve shows the repricing did not happen in one session. On September 4 the three-month constant maturity yield stood at 3.91 percent and the six-month at 3.98 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released August consumer price data on September 11, showing headline inflation at 3.4 percent over the prior twelve months and core inflation at 2.4 percent. By the close on September 14 the three-month had reached 4.11 percent and the six-month 4.18 percent, gains of 20 basis points each over seven business days. The one-year bill finished Monday at 4.37 percent, its highest level since November 26, 2024, and the two-year note closed at 4.65 percent, the highest since July 3, 2024.
Longer maturities moved less. The 10-year note ended Monday at 4.97 percent, up 19 basis points from September 4 and the highest close since October 19, 2023. The 30-year bond finished at 5.34 percent, up only 10 basis points over the same stretch. That pattern is a flattening, and it is what happens when the market lifts its expectation for near-term policy without lifting its expectation for long-run growth or inflation. Readers tracking the shape of the curve can follow the full set of maturities on our Treasury yield curve page.
What the Bidding Data Says About Demand
Higher yields did not come from weak demand. The 13-week auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.64, up from 2.61 the prior week, and Treasury accepted $100.2 billion against a $92 billion offering size. Indirect bidders, the category that includes foreign central banks and other bidders entering through primary dealers, took $49.5 billion, or 49.4 percent of accepted bids, against 47.0 percent a week earlier. Buyers showed up in size. They simply required more yield to clear.
The 26-week auction told a slightly different story. Bid-to-cover came in at 2.74 against 2.88 the prior week, and the indirect share slipped to 54.4 percent from 58.2 percent. Treasury accepted $86.1 billion on a $79 billion offering. A softer indirect share on the longer bill, paired with a firmer one on the shorter bill, points to buyers concentrating cash at the very front of the curve rather than extending. That is the standard posture when investors believe the policy rate is headed up and want the option to reinvest sooner at a better rate. The federal government has $40.05 trillion of debt outstanding as of September 11, and it refinances a large share of that stock through these weekly bill sales, so every basis point at the front end feeds directly into federal interest costs.
What Changes for Your Money
Nothing on your statement changed because of Monday’s auctions. The prime rate has held at 6.75 percent since December 11, 2025, a stretch of 278 days, and it moves only when the FOMC moves the federal funds target. If the Committee raises the target by a quarter point on Wednesday, the major banks move prime to 7.00 percent within a day or two, and variable-rate credit card APRs reset on the next billing cycle. Card issuers quote rates as prime plus a margin, so the full increase passes through. Home equity lines of credit and most variable-rate personal loan products follow the same mechanism.
Savers see the other side. Deposit rates track the front end of the Treasury curve more closely than they track prime, which is why high-yield savings accounts and short certificates of deposit tend to reprice within weeks of a move like Monday’s. A six-month bill at 4.18 percent sets a floor that banks competing for deposits have to respect. Mortgage borrowers are the exception. Thirty-year fixed rates key off the 10-year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities spreads, not off prime, and the 10-year moved half as much as the two-year over the past week. Our current mortgage rates page tracks that relationship daily.
If you are shopping for a certificate of deposit this week, wait until Thursday. Banks that reprice off the FOMC decision typically post new CD and savings rates within 48 hours of the announcement, and Monday’s bill auctions suggest the direction is up. If instead you are carrying a variable-rate balance, the move that protects you is the opposite one: lock a fixed-rate payoff before the next billing cycle resets, because a quarter-point increase on prime reaches your APR automatically and you cannot opt out of it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Treasury bill yields jump 17 basis points?
Treasury bill yields rose 17 basis points at the September 14, 2026 auctions because investors moved to price a higher federal funds rate ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The 13-week bill stopped at 3.970 percent and the 26-week at 4.060 percent, both above the 3.63 percent effective funds rate.
Why did Treasury rates go up today?
Short-dated Treasury rates rose because the market repriced the near-term path of Federal Reserve policy. The trigger sequence began with the August employment report, continued with the August consumer price index released on September 11, and reached the auction block on September 14. Treasury’s par yield curve shows the three-month constant maturity climbing from 3.91 percent on September 4 to 4.11 percent on September 14. Longer maturities rose less, which is the signature of a policy repricing rather than a broad shift in inflation expectations.
What is the current interest rate for Treasury bills today?
Treasury’s official par yield curve for September 14, 2026 puts the one-month bill at 3.94 percent, the three-month at 4.11 percent, the six-month at 4.18 percent and the one-year at 4.37 percent. At auction the same day, the 13-week bill stopped at a 3.970 percent discount rate, equal to a 4.066 percent investment rate, and the 26-week bill stopped at 4.060 percent, or a 4.203 percent investment rate. Treasury publishes fresh par yields every business day after the close.
Are the feds raising interest rates today?
No decision arrives on Tuesday. The FOMC meets September 15 and 16, and the policy statement, the updated Summary of Economic Projections and the Chair’s press conference all land on Wednesday, September 16. The Committee has held the federal funds target at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since its July 28-29 meeting. Whatever it decides Wednesday takes effect the following business day, and the next scheduled meeting after this one is October 27-28.
Will Kevin Warsh raise interest rates?
The Chair casts one vote on a twelve-member Committee and cannot set the rate alone. What the bill market priced on Monday is an outcome, not a personality. The 26-week stop cleared 43 basis points above the effective funds rate, a spread consistent with a meaningful probability of at least one quarter-point increase before that bill matures in March. The July meeting produced a hold on a divided vote, so the direction of the September decision rests on how the Committee reads the August inflation and payroll data.
What does this mean for my credit card APR?
Nothing yet. Variable credit card APRs are quoted as the prime rate plus a fixed margin, and prime has been 6.75 percent since December 11, 2025. Bill auction results do not touch prime. If the FOMC raises the funds target a quarter point on Wednesday, banks lift prime to 7.00 percent and your APR rises by the same 25 basis points on your next statement cycle. On a $6,000 revolving balance, a quarter point adds roughly $15 of interest over a full year.
Watching Wednesday and What Comes After
The decision lands Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern with a fresh dot plot attached, and the bill market has already staked out its position. Watch three things after the statement: whether prime moves off 6.75 percent, where the next 13-week auction clears on September 21, and how far the 2026 and 2027 dots shift. Our Fed rate forecast, prime rate tracker and interest rate dashboard all update the same afternoon.
References
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, TreasuryDirect. “Auction Announcements and Results.” Accessed September 15, 2026. treasurydirect.gov
- U.S. Department of the Treasury. “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.” September 14, 2026. home.treasury.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Meeting Calendars and Information.” Accessed September 15, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “H.15 Selected Interest Rates (Daily).” September 14, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. “Bank Prime Loan Rate (DPRIME).” Accessed September 15, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Price Index Summary.” September 11, 2026. bls.gov
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data. “Debt to the Penny.” September 11, 2026. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
