Every Treasury maturity from three years out to 30 years closed at or above 5.00% on Monday, September 28, 2026, the first time the middle and long end of the curve have cleared that line together since July 2007. The Treasury Department’s daily par yield curve put the three-year note at 5.01%, the five-year at 5.06%, the seven-year at 5.15%, the 10-year at 5.24%, the 20-year at 5.60% and the 30-year at 5.56%. Yields rose across all 14 published maturities. The two-year note, the tenor most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, added 11 basis points to 4.92%, its highest reading since May 30, 2024. The move follows the Fed’s September 16 decision to lift its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023, and it lands four weeks before the Committee meets again on October 27 and 28. For borrowers the signal is direct. Treasury yields set the floor under mortgage rates, auto loans and business credit, while the Fed’s target range sets the prime rate that governs credit card and home equity pricing. Our Treasury yield curve tracker and current prime rate page carry the daily readings behind the figures below.
- Three-year through 30-year Treasury yields all closed at or above 5.00% on September 28, a first since July 2007.
- The 10-year note reached 5.24%, its highest level since June 12, 2007, and the 30-year settled at 5.56%.
- Yields rose across all 14 published maturities, led by the two-year note, up 11 basis points to 4.92%.
- The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, lifting the prime rate to 7.00%.
- Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage average hit 7.03% in the week ending September 24, up 32 basis points in three weeks.
What Changed on the Curve
Treasury publishes a par yield curve every business day, and Monday’s file marked a threshold the market had not touched in 19 years. The three-year note crossed 5.00% for the first time since October 19, 2023, and in doing so became the last holdout among the maturities from three years to 30 years. The five-year at 5.06% is the highest since July 9, 2007. The seven-year at 5.15% is the highest since June 14, 2007. The 10-year at 5.24% is the highest since June 12, 2007, when it printed 5.26%. Federal Reserve data going back to 1990 records no session after July 9, 2007 in which all six of those tenors held 5.00% together. Monday ended a run of 4,807 trading sessions without one.
The long end is further from its own history than the belly of the curve. At 5.60%, the 20-year bond sits at its highest since May 13, 2004, and the 30-year at 5.56% is the highest since June 14, 2004, when it reached 5.58%. The two-year note stopped short of 5.00% but still cleared a 28-month barrier at 4.92%, a level last seen on May 30, 2024, in the weeks before the Fed began cutting. Short bills moved less. The one-month bill held at 4.04% and the three-month rose four basis points to 4.28%, anchored by an effective federal funds rate of 3.88% since the September hike.
How the Whole Curve Repriced
The selloff was broad rather than concentrated. Comparing Monday’s close with Friday, September 25, the six-month bill rose eight basis points to 4.41%, the one-year rose nine to 4.59%, the two-year rose 11 to 4.92%, the seven-year rose nine to 5.15% and the 20-year rose six to 5.60%. The two-year moved more than the 10-year, which is the market’s way of saying the repricing was about Federal Reserve policy and not only about term premium. The gap between the two-year and 10-year notes narrowed to 32 basis points from 36 on Friday, though it remains wider than the 20 basis points recorded on September 21.
Monday’s auctions carried the same message. Treasury sold $95 billion of 13-week bills at a high rate of 4.110%, up from 4.015% the week before, with bids covering the offering 2.99 times. It sold $82 billion of 26-week bills at 4.285%, up 13 basis points from 4.155% a week earlier, at a bid-to-cover of 2.64. Both settle on October 1, the first day of fiscal 2027. A six-month bill yielding 4.285% against an effective funds rate of 3.88% prices in further tightening inside the next two quarters. Our interest rate overview tracks how these benchmarks connect.
What Pushed Yields to 2007 Levels
Policy is the first driver. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12 to 0 on September 16 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, and the statement said inflation remains elevated and that the action “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” Banks moved the prime rate to 7.00% the next day. Markets have since repriced the path beyond October. A one-year Treasury yield of 4.59% against an effective funds rate of 3.88% prices the average overnight rate over the next 12 months about 71 basis points above today’s.
Supply is the second driver. Total public debt outstanding stood at $40,097,178,119,750.91 on September 25, with $32.386 trillion held by the public and $7.711 trillion held in government accounts. The federal government first crossed $40 trillion on August 18. Financing that stock at current market rates is steadily raising the government’s own cost of funds: the average interest rate across all interest-bearing Treasury debt reached 3.490% on August 31, up from 3.409% at the end of June and the highest monthly reading since 2009. Our national debt tracker updates the totals daily.
What Higher Yields Cost You
Mortgage pricing tracks the 10-year note more closely than it tracks the Fed. Freddie Mac’s survey average for the 30-year fixed reached 7.03% in the week ending September 24, up from 6.95% a week earlier and 6.71% on September 3, a rise of 32 basis points in three weeks. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.42%. On a $400,000 loan, moving from 6.71% to 7.03% adds $85.51 to the monthly principal and interest payment and about $30,800 across the full 30 years. Current quotes sit on our current mortgage rates page.
Revolving credit answers to the prime rate instead. With prime at 7.00%, a card priced at prime plus 14 points carries a 21.00% APR, and the Federal Reserve’s G.19 release put the average rate on accounts assessed interest at 20.94% in its May 2026 reading. Savers are on the other side of the trade. Six-month bills clearing at 4.285% set a competitive floor that deposit products have to answer, which is why the best CD rates and high-yield savings accounts have kept climbing. Fixed-rate borrowing sits in between: rates on personal loans are quoted off Treasury benchmarks, so they follow the five-year and seven-year notes rather than the prime rate.
If you are shopping a mortgage into this curve, ask each lender what it charges for a 60-day lock versus a 30-day lock rather than comparing headline rates alone. The 10-year note has moved 28 basis points in four sessions, and a lock that expires before closing puts you back in the market at whatever the curve does next. Price the extension fee up front, in dollars, and compare it against the cost of a quarter point of rate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 10-year Treasury yield today?
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24% on Monday, September 28, 2026, according to the Treasury Department’s daily par yield curve. That is its highest level since June 12, 2007. The 30-year bond closed at 5.56% and the two-year note at 4.92% the same day. Treasury posts the official close for each maturity after 4:15 p.m. Eastern on every business day, so intraday quotes from data vendors will differ from the official figures above until that daily file is published.
Why did Treasury yields go up?
Two forces pushed in the same direction. The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point on September 16 and said inflation remains elevated, which moved market expectations for where the funds rate settles over the next year. At the same time the government is financing $40.1 trillion of debt into a market already absorbing record auction sizes. Monday’s move was led by the two-year note rather than the 30-year bond, which points to policy expectations rather than long-term supply as the immediate cause.
What is the bond market doing right now?
Prices are falling and yields are rising across nearly the entire curve. All 14 maturities Treasury publishes finished higher on September 28 than on September 25, with gains of six to 11 basis points from the six-month bill out to the 30-year bond. The curve remains positively sloped: the 10-year sits 32 basis points above the two-year and 96 basis points above the three-month bill. Bill auction results on Monday cleared well above the prior week, which is the clearest sign that money-market pricing has shifted too.
Do higher Treasury yields raise my mortgage rate?
Yes, for fixed-rate mortgages. Lenders price 30-year loans off the 10-year Treasury note plus a spread that covers servicing, credit risk and prepayment risk, so a move in the 10-year usually shows up in quotes within days. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average went from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% in the week ending September 24 while the 10-year climbed toward 5.20%. Adjustable-rate mortgages behave differently, because their reset indexes follow short-term rates that the Federal Reserve controls far more directly than it controls the 10-year note.
Will the prime rate go up again in October?
Nobody can say for certain, and the Federal Reserve has not signaled a decision. What is observable is that the FOMC next meets October 27 and 28, that prime has been 7.00% since September 17, and that prime has moved in lockstep with the Fed’s target range for decades, sitting three percentage points above the upper bound. Short-dated Treasury pricing currently implies the average overnight rate over the next year runs about 71 basis points above today’s, which is consistent with more than one additional quarter-point increase.
Should I lock a CD now or wait for higher rates?
It depends on how much certainty the money needs. Treasury bills maturing in six months cleared at 4.285% on September 28, which tells you what the market will pay today for six months of certainty. A longer CD locks that yield past the October and December FOMC meetings, protecting you if policy reverses, while a shorter term or a high-yield savings account keeps the option to reprice if rates keep climbing. Splitting a balance across two maturities covers both cases without a forecast.
Watching the October FOMC Meeting
August personal consumption expenditures data lands September 30, the last day of fiscal 2026, and September CPI follows in mid-October. Both readings feed the Committee’s October 27 and 28 decision, the schedule for which sits on our Fed meeting calendar. If the curve holds above 5.00% from three years out, mortgage and auto borrowers face the higher cost regardless of what the Fed does next, while card and credit line holders wait on the target range. Track the projected path on our Fed rate forecast for 2026 and the daily benchmark on our Fed prime rate dashboard.
References
- U.S. Department of the Treasury. “Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates,” September 28, 2026. home.treasury.gov
- TreasuryDirect. “Auction Results,” 13-week and 26-week bill auctions of September 28, 2026. treasurydirect.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement,” September 16, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Meeting Calendars and Information.” federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “H.15 Selected Interest Rates,” prime and effective federal funds rates. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “G.19 Consumer Credit,” terms of credit, May 2026. federalreserve.gov
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data. “Debt to the Penny,” September 25, 2026. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data. “Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities,” August 31, 2026. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. “10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Yield (DGS10).” fred.stlouisfed.org
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. “30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US),” Freddie Mac survey, week ending September 24, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org
