The Department of Justice closed its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building renovations last week, removing the procedural obstacle that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) had cited as the basis for blocking Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair from advancing out of the Senate Banking Committee. With the investigation now resolved, the path is cleared for the Banking Committee to vote out Warsh’s nomination, the full Senate to confirm him, and Warsh to take office before Jerome Powell’s current term as Chair expires May 15, 2026. The shift is meaningful: as recently as April 22 (when our prior Warsh confirmation analysis published), the most likely scenario was Powell continuing as Chair past May 15 while the nomination remained stalled. As of this week, the most likely scenario is Warsh being confirmed and chairing his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17. The April 28–29 meeting that begins today is now expected to be Powell’s last as Chair.
- DOJ closed Fed renovation investigation last week, lifting Sen. Tillis’s blockade.
- Senate Banking Committee can now move Warsh’s nomination forward; floor vote expected before May 15.
- April 28–29 FOMC meeting is now expected to be Powell’s last as Chair.
- June 16–17 FOMC will likely be Warsh’s first meeting; SEP and dot plot will be Warsh-led.
- Markets price 65% probability rates stay where they are through end-2026 — even with the Chair change.
What Just Changed: The DOJ Closure and the Confirmation Path
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, led by Jeanine Pirro, had been investigating the Federal Reserve’s multi-billion-dollar renovation of its Eccles Building headquarters complex in Washington since late 2025. The investigation focused on procurement and contracting practices around the renovation. Pirro had attempted to subpoena Powell directly in connection with the matter but had the effort blocked in court. Last week, the office closed the investigation without filing charges. The closure was reported through Bloomberg and confirmed in subsequent coverage; the office did not issue a public statement detailing the basis for closing.
For the Warsh nomination, the closure removes the specific procedural stake Sen. Tillis had publicly placed. At Warsh’s April 21 confirmation hearing, Tillis stated: “Let’s get rid of this investigation, so I can support your confirmation.” That was an explicit commitment — withdraw the hold once the investigation resolves. With the investigation now resolved, Tillis’s stated condition is met. Republicans hold a 12–10 majority on the Senate Banking Committee; with Tillis joining, the committee has a clear path to vote the nomination out for floor consideration.
The Two-Week Timeline: From Closure to Floor Vote
The procedural mechanics from here are reasonably well-defined. First, the Senate Banking Committee Chair (Sen. Tim Scott, R-SC) schedules a markup or executive session to vote on advancing the nomination — typically a one- to two-week notice from the time the conditions are met. With the DOJ closure last week, a vote could be scheduled as early as this week or next, with first-week-of-May the most likely window. Once the committee votes the nomination out, it advances to the full Senate floor.
The full Senate vote on a Federal Reserve Chair nomination is a simple-majority vote of voting senators. With the Republican majority and Warsh’s bipartisan history (his 2006 Governor confirmation was unanimous, including support from then-Sen. Chuck Schumer), the floor vote is likely a clearer path than the committee stage was. The most likely sequence: committee markup the first week of May, committee vote out late that week, floor cloture and confirmation vote the second week of May, with confirmation potentially landing the week of May 11–15 — just before Powell’s term expires.
If timing slips even a few days past May 15, Powell remains Chair under the Federal Reserve Act provision that the Chair continues until a successor takes office. That guarantees no leadership vacuum. But the most likely scenario as of this week is a clean transition with Warsh sworn in before or shortly after May 15. The companion Warsh confirmation analysis covers his policy profile and what changes under his leadership.
Why This Makes Wednesday Powell’s Last Press Conference
The April 29 FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday afternoon with Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. With the confirmation timeline now pointing to a Warsh swearing-in by May 15, this Wednesday’s press conference is, in all likelihood, Powell’s final media appearance as Federal Reserve Chair. The Motley Fool’s coverage on Sunday flagged this directly: “This will also likely be the last monetary policy meeting led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.” Several other outlets followed with the same framing.
For the press conference itself, the implications are mostly tonal. Powell typically uses post-meeting Q&A to thread the needle between dovish and hawkish framings; on Wednesday he may also use the moment to set up a graceful handoff. Expect at least one journalist to ask directly about the transition; expect Powell to deflect any specific commentary on Warsh’s expected policy direction while acknowledging the procedural progress. The substantive content — the rate decision, the statement language, the inflation outlook — is unlikely to be affected by his impending exit. The FOMC operates by Committee consensus, not by individual Chair preference, so Powell’s last meeting will reflect the same Committee dynamics as any other meeting.
What Changes for Your Money
For most household financial decisions, the leadership transition is essentially invisible in the near term. The April 29 hold (markets price 100% probability) keeps the prime rate at 6.75%, credit card APRs in the 21–24% range unchanged, top HYSA rates at 4.00–4.20%, and 30-year mortgage rates around 6.00–6.38%. None of those numbers move because the Chair changes. The full breakdown of consumer-rate effects is in our Fed hold impact guide.
Where the transition matters is in the medium-term policy path. Markets currently price 65% probability that rates stay at 3.50%–3.75% through the end of 2026 — a more hawkish view than just two weeks ago, when consensus had been one cut by year-end. Warsh’s stated policy preferences (more conservative on rate cuts, skeptical of forward guidance, less frequent press conferences) align with the more hawkish positioning. A Warsh-led Fed is unlikely to accelerate rate cuts; it may slow them. Borrowers waiting for substantial rate relief should plan for a multi-quarter horizon, not a multi-month one. The June rate cut analysis covers the data path that any Chair would be navigating.
One subtler implication: Stephen Miran’s continued tenure as Governor is now more uncertain. Miran has been the most consistent rate-cut advocate on the Committee (five consecutive dissents, covered in our FOMC dissent watch). His term technically expired January 31, 2026, and he’s been serving until a successor is confirmed. With Warsh’s confirmation now likely, Trump’s broader Fed Board picks could move forward, potentially replacing Miran with another nominee. The dovish wing of the Committee may shrink rather than grow under Warsh.
If you’re tracking the confirmation timeline, the three signals are the Senate Banking Committee schedule (banking.senate.gov/hearings — the markup or executive session announcement is the key trigger), Sen. Tim Scott’s official statements (he chairs the committee and sets the schedule), and any further news from Sen. Tillis confirming his vote. Reuters and Bloomberg flag any procedural movement within minutes. The most important window to watch is the next 7–10 days; after that, the path is largely procedural and the floor vote is largely a foregone conclusion.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the DOJ drop the Fed renovation investigation?
Yes. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia closed its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building renovations last week, ending the matter without filing charges. The office did not issue a detailed public statement explaining the basis for closing. The closure was reported through Bloomberg and subsequently confirmed in widespread financial news coverage. The investigation had been the procedural hook Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) cited for blocking Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair from advancing out of the Senate Banking Committee.
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Likely yes, and likely before May 15, 2026. With the DOJ investigation closed and Sen. Tillis’s stated condition met, the Senate Banking Committee has a clear path to vote out the nomination. Republicans hold a 12–10 majority on the committee. The full Senate floor vote requires a simple majority of voting senators — a lower bar than the committee stage. The most likely sequence: committee markup the first week of May, floor confirmation vote the week of May 11–15. If timing slips, Powell remains Chair under the Federal Reserve Act provision that the Chair continues until a successor takes office.
Is April 29 Powell’s last FOMC meeting?
In all likelihood, yes. Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair expires May 15, 2026. With Warsh’s confirmation now expected to land before that date, the April 28–29 meeting concluding Wednesday is most likely Powell’s final monetary policy meeting as Chair. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting (an SEP meeting with a fresh dot plot) would then be Warsh’s first as Chair. Powell could remain on the Board of Governors as a regular Governor through January 2028 — that separate term does not expire until then — though he may also choose to resign from the Board entirely once a successor is sworn in.
When will the Senate vote on Warsh?
No date has been formally announced as of April 28, 2026. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) is expected to schedule a markup or executive session within the next one to two weeks now that the DOJ investigation has closed and Sen. Tillis’s blockade is lifted. The most likely sequence is committee vote the first week of May, with full Senate floor confirmation vote the second week of May. Procedural delays are possible but unlikely given the Republican majority and Warsh’s bipartisan profile. Watch banking.senate.gov for the official schedule announcement.
Will Warsh’s confirmation affect interest rates?
Not directly or immediately. The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee through majority vote, not by the Chair alone. The April 29 decision is not affected by the confirmation status, and the June 16–17 decision under Warsh’s leadership will reflect the views of all 12 voting members and the underlying economic data — not Warsh’s individual preferences. Over time, however, Warsh’s stated policy profile (more conservative on rate cuts, skeptical of forward guidance) suggests a slower easing path than a Powell-led Fed might have produced. Markets have already moved to price this in: the December 2026 federal funds rate is now priced at 65% probability of staying at 3.50%–3.75% — meaning no cuts at all for the rest of 2026.
What does this mean for my mortgage or savings?
In the short term, nothing changes. The April 29 hold means the prime rate stays at 6.75%, your credit card APR doesn’t move, top HYSA APYs around 4.00–4.20% stay where they are, and 30-year mortgage rates around 6.00–6.38% drift only on Powell’s press-conference tone. Over the medium term (next 6–12 months), the more hawkish positioning of a Warsh-led Fed means rates may stay elevated longer than previously expected. If you’ve been waiting for substantial rate relief before locking a mortgage, refinancing, or paying down a HELOC, the wait may be longer than the prior consensus suggested. The Fed hold impact guide covers the specific consumer-rate effects.
Watching the Confirmation Through May
The next two weeks will determine the final shape of the leadership transition. Two trigger dates matter: the Senate Banking Committee markup announcement (likely first week of May) and the floor confirmation vote (likely second week of May). For ongoing tracking, the current prime rate page, U.S. interest rates dashboard, and Fed rate forecast for 2026 are updated continuously. The companion sprint pieces — April FOMC meeting preview, Warsh confirmation analysis, FOMC dissent watch, June rate cut analysis, and Fed hold impact guide — together cover the meeting machinery and the consumer-rate implications.
References
- The Motley Fool. “The Fed Meets on Rates This Week. What Should Investors Expect?” April 27, 2026. fool.com
- U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. “Hearings.” banking.senate.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Calendars and Information.” federalreserve.gov
- CME Group. “FedWatch Tool.” cmegroup.com
- The White House. “Presidential Nominations Sent to the Senate.” whitehouse.gov
Keep Reading
- Current U.S. Prime Rate Today
- Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule 2026
- Fed Rate Forecast 2026
- U.S. Interest Rates Dashboard
- April 2026 FOMC Meeting Preview
- Will Warsh Replace Powell? Confirmation Analysis
- FOMC Dissent Watch: Miran and Waller
- Will the Fed Cut Rates in June 2026?
- Fed Hold Impact on Your Money
