Markets head into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision with a near-100% probability priced for a hold at 3.50%–3.75% (CME FedWatch shows 100% at the time of writing) and a 65% probability that rates stay where they are through the end of 2026 — a meaningfully more hawkish picture than even two weeks ago. The story heading into the meeting isn’t whether the Fed cuts on Wednesday — it doesn’t. The story is what the press conference signals about the rest of the year, against the backdrop of three new variables that have shifted the picture in the final week: the Department of Justice closing its investigation into Fed building renovations (clearing the way for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair before May 15), the release of March meeting minutes showing a more cautious staff economic projection, and the continued holding of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that took energy prices down from their March highs. For your money in the next 18 hours, the playbook is short: don’t lock anything irrevocable in the 30 minutes before 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, watch the 10-year Treasury yield in real time, and act after Powell finishes his opening remarks if you have a decision pending.
- CME FedWatch shows ~100% probability of a hold Wednesday and 65% probability rates stay at 3.50%–3.75% through end-2026.
- DOJ closure of Fed renovation probe lifted Tillis’s blockade — Warsh confirmation now expected before May 15.
- Wednesday is likely Powell’s last FOMC press conference as Chair.
- Iran-ceasefire holding — energy prices have moderated, supporting the inflation outlook.
- Best window for action: after 3:15 p.m. ET Wednesday once the press conference settles.
What Shifted in the Final Week
Three news developments in the seven days before the meeting reshaped the picture. First, the DOJ closed its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s Eccles Building renovations, ending the procedural obstacle that had stalled Warsh’s confirmation. The full implications are covered in our DOJ closure analysis, but the practical effect is that Wednesday is now expected to be Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Chair. The June 16–17 meeting will likely be Warsh’s first.
Second, the March 17–18 FOMC meeting minutes (released April 9) showed a more cautious staff economic projection than at the January meeting — primarily reflecting incoming data and “less expected support” from policy. The minutes also flagged growing investor concerns about private credit exposure to AI-related software loans. The combined picture is one of a Committee paying more attention to growth-side risks even as inflation remained above target.
Third, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced April 8 has held through the intermeeting period. Brent crude has remained below $100 for the entire post-ceasefire window after spiking to $118 in March. Headline CPI energy effects have begun to moderate, though core inflation has been sticky. The market reaction to the durable ceasefire has been a quiet repricing of the cycle: more hawkish on rate cuts (Fed doesn’t need to cut to offset growth from energy shock), but also more confident in the inflation trajectory (energy moderation supports disinflation).
What Markets Are Pricing Right Now
The CME FedWatch tool shows roughly 100% probability of a hold at the April 28–29 meeting — effectively eliminating any meaningful chance of a surprise move. For the June 16–17 meeting, the cut probability has retreated from the 36% level it held in mid-April to roughly 28%. For September 15–16 (the next SEP meeting), markets price approximately 40% probability of a cut. The most striking shift is at year-end: 65% probability that the federal funds rate is still at 3.50%–3.75% on December 9, 2026 — meaning no cuts at all for the rest of the year.
Bond markets reflect the same picture. The 10-year Treasury yield has held around 4.10% through the past two weeks, with limited reaction to the Iran ceasefire holding. Mortgage rates per Freddie Mac have stayed in the 6.00–6.38% range. Money market funds and HYSA top APYs have stayed near 4.00–4.20% despite the more hawkish forward path — banks are not yet preemptively cutting rates because the no-cut path actually supports holding deposit yields. This dynamic could change if the June cut probability drops further, but for now it works in savers’ favor.
For the broader rate trajectory through 2026, the Fed rate forecast for 2026 tracks the consensus path. The forward analysis is in our June rate cut analysis, and the consumer-rate impact picture is in our Fed hold impact guide.
What to Watch Wednesday at 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. ET
The post-meeting statement releases at 2:00 p.m. ET. Three statement-language signals will move markets in the first 30 minutes. First, the inflation descriptor — does the language still say “remains somewhat elevated” (March wording) or shift to “has eased” or similar softening? Second, the labor market sentence — does “solid” hold, or does any “moderating” or “cooling” language appear? Third, the dissent count in the final paragraph — Miran is widely expected to dissent again, possibly with Waller rejoining him. Our FOMC dissent watch covers what the count signals.
Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET will set the tone for the rest of the year. With this likely being his last meeting as Chair, expect a journalist to ask directly about the transition; expect Powell to deflect any specific commentary on Warsh’s policy direction. The signal that matters most: any phrasing about whether the Committee “discussed” a June cut at this meeting. Powell saying yes opens the door; saying “we are not in a hurry” closes it. Three other phrasings worth listening for — “we are getting closer,” “data-dependent,” “patience” — will tilt the read in one direction or the other.
What to Do With Your Money in the Next 18 Hours
Three concrete tactical moves for the next 18 hours.
Don’t lock anything irrevocable in the 30 minutes before 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday. If you’re locking a mortgage rate, opening a CD, or committing to any rate-sensitive product, wait at least until after Powell’s opening remarks (2:35–2:45 p.m. ET). The pre-statement window typically sees thin trading and exaggerated bid-ask spreads as bond markets position; lender rate sheets reflect that volatility. By 3:15 p.m. ET, the picture has settled and the day’s net move is mostly clear.
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield in real time. Search “10 year treasury yield” on any financial site, or use cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y. The 10-year is the cleanest single signal for what the meeting actually moved. A 5–10 basis point drop suggests Powell opened the June door (mortgage rates will follow lower by Friday). A 5–10 basis point rise suggests he closed it (mortgage rates may tick higher). The yield curve guide covers the underlying mechanics.
If you have a CD maturing in the next 60 days, don’t wait for renewal day. Top short-term CDs are still around 4.00–4.20%. The combination of the more-hawkish-than-priced forward path and the impending Warsh confirmation creates near-term uncertainty about where these rates land in May. Locking a renewal rate before the meeting protects today’s level. The CD vs HYSA timing guide walks through the locking decision.
If you’re watching the Fed live Wednesday, the federalreserve.gov livestream typically goes live around 2:25 p.m. ET. The first three reporter questions in the press conference Q&A typically extract the most market-relevant signals — Powell tends to give clearer forward guidance in the opening exchanges before settling into more cautious framing. CNBC, Bloomberg, and the Fed’s official YouTube channel all carry the press conference. The most concise live-ticker source is the federalreserve.gov press release page, which posts the official text within 30 seconds of the announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Fed decision on April 29?
The Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting policy statement releases at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at federalreserve.gov. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET and typically runs 45 minutes. CME FedWatch shows roughly 100% probability of a hold at the current 3.50%–3.75% target range. Markets will react to the statement language and the press conference signals, not to the rate decision itself.
What’s the probability of a Fed cut on April 29?
Approximately zero. CME FedWatch shows roughly 100% probability of a hold at the current 3.50%–3.75% target range. The market is essentially fully priced for no rate change. The active questions for Wednesday are about the forward path: the June cut probability has retreated to about 28%, and the year-end probability of rates staying at 3.50%–3.75% has risen to 65%. Translation: markets now expect zero cuts for the rest of 2026 as the most likely scenario.
Is this Powell’s last FOMC meeting?
In all likelihood, yes. With the DOJ closing its Fed renovation investigation last week and clearing Sen. Tillis’s blockade on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, Warsh is now expected to be confirmed before Powell’s May 15 term expiration. The April 28–29 meeting concluding Wednesday is most likely Powell’s final FOMC press conference as Chair. The June 16–17 meeting (an SEP meeting with a fresh dot plot) will likely be Warsh’s first as Chair. Our DOJ closure analysis and Warsh confirmation analysis cover the transition in full.
Should I lock my mortgage rate before the Fed meeting?
If your rate is already locked, you’re fine — your rate doesn’t change with the meeting. If you’re about to lock and have flexibility, the conservative play is to wait for at least Powell’s opening remarks (2:35–2:45 p.m. ET Wednesday) before locking. Don’t lock in the 30 minutes before 2:00 p.m. ET, when bond markets typically have thin liquidity and exaggerated spreads. By 3:15 p.m. ET, the day’s picture has settled. If your rate-lock deadline is critical and you have urgency, lock at the current rate this week and don’t try to time the meeting precisely.
What should I watch in the post-meeting statement?
Three signals carry the most weight. First: the inflation descriptor — March said “remains somewhat elevated”; any softening to “has eased” or “is moving back toward” is dovish. Second: the labor market sentence — March said “solid”; any shift to “moderating” or “cooling” is dovish. Third: the dissent count in the final paragraph — Stephen Miran is widely expected to dissent again for a cut. The number of additional dissenters (Waller? Bowman?) signals internal Committee pressure for the June meeting. Bond markets typically react to all three within the first 5 minutes of the statement release.
Watching Wednesday Live
For ongoing tracking, the current prime rate page, U.S. interest rates dashboard, and Fed rate forecast for 2026 are updated continuously. The companion sprint pieces — the April FOMC meeting preview, June rate cut analysis, Fed hold impact guide, FOMC dissent watch, Warsh confirmation analysis, and DOJ closure analysis — together cover the meeting machinery, the policy outlook, and the consumer-rate implications.
References
- CME Group. “FedWatch Tool.” cmegroup.com
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Calendars and Information.” federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Minutes, March 17-18, 2026.” federalreserve.gov
- Freddie Mac. “Primary Mortgage Market Survey.” freddiemac.com
- The Motley Fool. “The Fed Meets on Rates This Week. What Should Investors Expect?” April 27, 2026. fool.com
Keep Reading
- Current U.S. Prime Rate Today
- Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule 2026
- Fed Rate Forecast 2026
- April 2026 FOMC Meeting Preview
- DOJ Drops Fed Probe — Warsh Confirmation Cleared
- Will the Fed Cut Rates in June 2026?
- Fed Hold Impact on Your Money
- FOMC Dissent Watch
- Mortgage Rate Lock Timing
- CD vs HYSA: When to Lock
