The U.S. Treasury publishes its updated marketable borrowing estimates at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday, November 2, and the figure under review is the $628 billion it projected in August for the October through December quarter. That August 3 projection assumed Treasury would close December holding $850 billion in cash. It is carrying considerably more than that right now. The Daily Treasury Statement put the Treasury General Account at $1.040 trillion on October 29, roughly $190 billion above the December assumption, which gives the department room to trim issuance or to carry a thicker buffer into 2027. Wednesday, November 4 brings the quarterly refunding statement at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the document that fixes the size of the next 3-year note, 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions. Treasury told the market in August that it expected to hold nominal coupon auction sizes steady “for at least the next several quarters,” so a change to that sentence this week would be the story. The backdrop is a national debt that reached $40.59 trillion on October 29 after adding $421.8 billion during October, and a 10-year Treasury yield that settled at 4.98 percent the day after the Federal Reserve left its policy rate alone. What Treasury says this week sets how much new paper investors must absorb through year end, and at which points on the yield curve that supply lands.
Key Takeaways
- Treasury updates its October through December borrowing estimate at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday, November 2.
- The August 3 projection was $628 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for the quarter.
- Treasury’s cash balance stood at $1.040 trillion on October 29, well above the $850 billion it assumed for December.
- The quarterly refunding statement follows at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, November 4.
- The prime rate holds at 7.00 percent after the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision.
What Treasury Reports on Monday
The Monday release is narrow and specific. Treasury states how much privately held net marketable debt it expects to issue in the current quarter, states the cash balance it is steering toward at the end of that quarter, and reconciles the prior quarter’s actual borrowing against the estimate it gave three months earlier. In the August 3 release, Treasury put October through December borrowing at $628 billion against an assumed $850 billion end-of-December cash balance. It also reported that July through September borrowing was running at $739 billion, which it described as $68 billion higher than the May estimate, driven primarily by weaker projected net cash flows. For the April through June quarter, Treasury confirmed actual borrowing of $190 billion against a May estimate of $189 billion.
Two numbers decide whether Monday’s figure moves up or down from $628 billion. The first is the cash balance Treasury now wants to end December with, because every dollar of target cash is a dollar it must borrow. The second is the pace of net cash flows, meaning tax receipts against outlays. October’s debt data already hints at the answer. Total public debt outstanding climbed from $40.172 trillion on September 30 to $40.594 trillion on October 29, an increase of $421.8 billion in a single month, with debt held by the public accounting for $287.2 billion of that. Treasury is roughly two thirds of the way through the quarter’s August estimate with two months still to run.
The Refunding Week Timeline
Treasury runs the same three-step sequence every quarter. It published the primary dealer meeting agenda on October 16 at noon, which told dealers what questions the department wanted answered. Monday, November 2 at 3:00 p.m. Eastern brings the financing estimates and the economic policy statements to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Wednesday, November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern brings the refunding statement itself, along with the committee’s report to the Secretary, the committee minutes, the tentative auction schedule for the coming quarter and the tentative buyback schedule.
The August 5 statement is the benchmark Wednesday will be measured against. Treasury offered $125 billion of securities to refund roughly $96.3 billion of privately held notes and bonds maturing on August 15, raising about $28.7 billion in new cash. The package broke down into a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note and a $25 billion 30-year bond. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance Brian Smith wrote that Treasury “anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters,” while adding that the department “continues to evaluate potential future changes to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.” That second sentence is the one bond desks will reread first on Wednesday morning.
A Cash Pile Running Above the Plan
The Treasury General Account is the government’s checking account at the Federal Reserve, and its level is the clearest signal of how much borrowing pressure is coming. The Daily Treasury Statement recorded a closing balance of $1.040 trillion on October 29, against the $850 billion Treasury said in August it was steering toward for December 31. The account opened October at $984.0 billion, so it gained during a month when the department also added $421.8 billion to the debt. A balance running $190 billion above target is the kind of cushion that lets Treasury pare back bill issuance rather than add to it.
Short-dated bills have carried the load. Treasury auctioned $110 billion of 4-week bills, $105 billion of 8-week bills, $95 billion of 13-week bills, $82 billion of 26-week bills and $75 billion of 17-week bills in single October rounds. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation calculates that 4-week bills have averaged $94 billion per issuance across 2026, making that tenor Treasury’s single largest offering. Leaning on bills keeps the department flexible but resets a growing share of the debt at short-term rates every few weeks. The average interest rate on all interest-bearing debt was 3.531 percent on September 30, while the bill portion alone paid 3.870 percent.
What Refunding Week Means for Your Rates
Treasury issuance and the prime rate move on separate tracks, and separating them is the practical takeaway. Prime follows the federal funds target, which the Federal Open Market Committee held at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on October 28 by a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. Prime therefore stays at 7.00 percent, and so does the base under most variable credit card APRs and home equity lines. Nothing Treasury announces this week changes that number. The next scheduled opportunity for prime to move appears on the Fed meeting schedule.
Longer borrowing costs are a different matter, because they key off the Treasury curve that this week’s supply decisions feed. The 10-year yield closed at 4.98 percent on October 29 and the 30-year at 5.32 percent, with the 2-year at 4.61 percent. Those long yields anchor 30-year mortgage rates far more directly than the Fed’s overnight target does, so a surprise increase in coupon auction sizes on Wednesday tends to push mortgage quotes higher within days. The same curve sets what banks pay savers. Heavy bill supply at the front end has kept CD rates and high-yield savings yields competitive, and a lighter bill calendar would eventually soften both. Borrowers shopping personal loan rates sit in between, pricing off intermediate yields.
Pro Tip
If you are deciding between locking a mortgage rate now or floating into next week, treat Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern as a real event risk. An increase in 10-year and 30-year auction sizes typically lifts long yields the same morning, and mortgage lenders reprice within a day or two. Savers face the mirror image. If you have been waiting to open a longer CD, a confirmed step down in bill issuance would be the signal to lock a term before offered yields drift lower.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much does the Treasury expect to borrow this quarter?
Treasury’s most recent published figure, released August 3, 2026, is $628 billion in privately held net marketable borrowing for the October through December 2026 quarter, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion. Treasury updates that estimate at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday, November 2, 2026.
What is the quarterly refunding and why does it matter?
The quarterly refunding is Treasury’s announcement of how it will finance the government over the next three months. It names the exact dollar size of the 3-year note, 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions, plus the planned sizes for other tenors and the buyback program. It matters because those sizes determine how much long-dated supply the bond market must absorb. More supply at the long end usually means higher yields, and higher yields on the 10-year note feed directly into mortgage pricing and corporate borrowing costs.
Will the Treasury raise auction sizes on November 4?
Treasury has not said. Its August 5 statement guided that it “anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters,” which argues for no change. The counterweight is that the same statement said Treasury continues to evaluate future changes based on structural demand and the costs of different issuance profiles. With the cash balance at $1.040 trillion on October 29 against an $850 billion December target, the immediate funding pressure for an increase looks modest. The announcement arrives at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.
Does this change my credit card or HELOC rate?
No. Variable credit card APRs and home equity lines of credit are priced off the prime rate, which tracks the federal funds target rather than Treasury issuance. The Federal Open Market Committee held that target at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on October 28, so prime remains 7.00 percent. A card quoted at prime plus 14 percentage points stays at 21.00 percent regardless of what Treasury announces this week. Your card rate changes when the Fed moves, typically within one or two billing cycles of a decision.
How big is the national debt right now?
Total public debt outstanding was $40,593,637,262,883.48 on October 29, 2026, according to Treasury’s Debt to the Penny series. Of that, $32.71 trillion was debt held by the public and the remainder sat in intragovernmental holdings. The total grew $421.8 billion during October, up from $40.172 trillion on September 30. Treasury publishes the figure every business day with a one-day lag, and you can follow the running total and its monthly change on our national debt tracker.
What should a saver do during refunding week?
Watch the bill calendar rather than the headline borrowing number. Treasury has been funding itself heavily with short bills, auctioning $110 billion of 4-week and $82 billion of 26-week paper in single October rounds, and that supply is part of why deposit yields have held up. If Wednesday’s schedule trims bill sizes, banks face less competition from Treasury for short-term money and promotional savings and CD yields tend to ease over the following weeks. Locking a term before that happens preserves the current rate.
Watching the Wednesday Statement
Monday’s estimate sets the size of the problem and Wednesday’s statement sets the solution. The single sentence worth reading closely is whether Treasury repeats its guidance on holding nominal coupon auction sizes steady. If it does, long yields have one less reason to climb into year end. If it drops or qualifies that language, the 10-year and 30-year parts of the curve reprice first. Track the daily readings on our interest rate dashboard, the Fed balance sheet tracker and the interest on the national debt page.
References
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates, August 3, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Statement of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance Brian Smith, August 5, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Most Recent Quarterly Refunding Documents, accessed November 2, 2026.
- Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Debt to the Penny, data through October 29, 2026.
- Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Daily Treasury Statement, Operating Cash Balance, October 29, 2026.
- Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, September 30, 2026.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FOMC Statement, October 28, 2026.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, October 29, 2026.
- Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Quarterly Treasury Refunding Statement: Borrowing Could Rise Soon, October 2, 2026.
