The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on October 28, 2026, keeping the U.S. prime rate at 7.00 percent. The vote was 10 to 2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack both dissented, each preferring to raise the range by a quarter percentage point. That split ends a stretch of agreement: the September 16 decision that lifted the range to its current level passed 12 to 0 with no dissents. The statement itself leaned hawkish. The Committee described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace, called domestic spending resilient, and said inflation remains elevated. For borrowers, nothing changed overnight. Prime stays at 7.00 percent until the Committee moves the range again, as our current prime rate page and Fed meeting schedule track. What did change is the balance of opinion inside the room, and that matters for December 8 and 9, the last scheduled meeting of 2026 and the next one to carry a fresh set of economic projections.
- The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, leaving prime at 7.00%.
- The vote was 10 to 2. Cook and Hammack dissented, both preferring a quarter point increase.
- September’s hike to the current range passed 12 to 0, so October was the first split vote since.
- The statement called activity strong, spending resilient and inflation elevated, a hawkish combination.
- December 8 and 9 is the next meeting and carries a new Summary of Economic Projections.
What the Fed Did on October 28
The post-meeting statement kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, a level first reached at the September 16 meeting. The accompanying Implementation Note, effective October 29, held the supporting rates in place as well. Interest on reserve balances stays at 3.90 percent. The primary credit rate, paid at the discount window, stays at 4.00 percent. The overnight reverse repurchase facility continues to offer 3.75 percent with a per counterparty limit of 160 billion dollars a day, and the standing overnight repo rate remains 4.00 percent.
On the balance sheet, the Committee repeated its commitment to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system rather than announcing a new runoff pace. Fed assets stood at 6.75 trillion dollars in the weekly data for October 21. The economic language did the heavier lifting. The Committee said activity is expanding at a strong pace, pointed to resilient domestic spending and robust capital investment, and said inflation remains elevated. Taken together, that describes an economy running warm, which is the usual setup for tightening rather than waiting. The Committee waited anyway, and two of its twelve members said so on the record.
The 10 to 2 Vote and Why Two Members Broke Ranks
Dissents at the Fed are rare enough to carry signal. The October statement records two: Lisa D. Cook, a member of the Board of Governors, and Beth M. Hammack, who represents the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the Committee. Both wanted the target range lifted by a quarter percentage point at this meeting. Neither filed a dovish objection, so every registered disagreement on the Committee ran toward tighter policy, not easier policy.
Six weeks earlier the same twelve members voted 12 to 0 to raise the range to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. The data between the two meetings gives the dissenters their case. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 14 that consumer prices rose 3.7 percent over the twelve months through September, with core prices up 2.6 percent. Headline inflation at 3.7 percent sits well above the Committee’s 2 percent objective. The September projections showed a median federal funds rate of 4.1 percent at the end of 2026, above the 3.88 percent effective rate in the Fed’s H.15 release for October 26. That gap implies the typical participant still expects one more quarter point move this year. Cook and Hammack wanted to make it on October 28.
What the Hold Signals About December 8 and 9
The Committee has one meeting left this year, on December 8 and 9, and it is a projection meeting. Participants will submit a new Summary of Economic Projections, including a refreshed dot plot, which makes it the clearest scheduled read on where policy goes next. The September edition put the median federal funds rate at 4.1 percent for the end of 2026 and again at 4.1 percent for the end of 2027.
Treasury markets have not priced a policy reversal. The ten year constant maturity yield printed at 5.00 percent in the H.15 release for October 26. The two year yield sat at 4.70 percent on the same day, leaving the ten year minus two year spread at 0.38 percentage points on October 28. A positively sloped curve with a two year yield well above the 3.88 percent effective funds rate describes a market that expects the next move to be up rather than down. Our Treasury yield curve and Fed rate forecast pages carry the daily read. The November jobs report and the November consumer price release both land before December 9.
What the Hold Means for Your Money
The prime rate is the number that reaches household borrowing fastest. Banks set it at the top of the federal funds target range plus three percentage points, so 4.00 percent plus 3.00 gives the 7.00 percent published in the Fed’s H.15 release for October 26 and carried in the daily prime series through October 27. Because the Committee held, prime holds, and every product indexed to it holds with it. Variable rate credit cards move first. The Fed’s G.19 release, published October 7, put the average rate across all credit card accounts at 21.19 percent for August 2026 and the average on accounts assessed interest at 22.36 percent. Those averages sit on a prime rate unchanged since September 16, so card APRs have no mechanical reason to reset this month. The same release put the average 24 month personal loan rate at 11.90 percent and the average 60 month new car loan at 7.54 percent.
Savers get the mirror image. A hold keeps deposit pricing where it is, which is the argument for locking a term now instead of waiting. Compare CD rates and high yield savings accounts against what your current bank pays. Borrowers carrying a balance should treat the hold as time rather than relief, because the September projections still point up. Our personal loan comparison and guide to how Fed decisions reach your loans set out the mechanics.
Three releases decide the December 9 vote, and all three land first. The November jobs report arrives in early December, the November consumer price index follows, and the Fed’s H.15 release updates the prime rate and the effective funds rate every business day. If headline inflation holds near 3.7 percent and payrolls hold up, the September median of 4.1 percent becomes the base case and prime moves to 7.25 percent. Price variable rate exposure before the meeting, not after it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Fed raise rates on October 28, 2026?
No. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on October 28, 2026, leaving the U.S. prime rate at 7.00 percent. The vote was 10 to 2, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferring a quarter point increase.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
The December 8 and 9 meeting is the last of 2026 and the next opportunity. Fed officials’ September projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1 percent for the end of this year, above the 3.88 percent effective rate reported in the H.15 release for October 26. That gap implies one more quarter point increase. Two members already voted for it on October 28. The November jobs and inflation reports, both released before the meeting, will settle whether the rest of the Committee joins them.
Did Kevin Warsh raise rates?
Not at the October meeting. Kevin Warsh chairs the Federal Open Market Committee, but the federal funds target range is set by a majority vote of the Committee’s twelve members, not by the Chair alone. On October 28 the Committee voted 10 to 2 to hold the range at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, and Warsh was in the majority. The Committee did raise the range by a quarter point on September 16 of this year, in a unanimous 12 to 0 vote, taking the prime rate to 7.00 percent.
What are the expected interest rates in 2026?
The Federal Reserve publishes its own answer four times a year. In the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at the end of 2026 and 4.1 percent again at the end of 2027. The same projections showed median real GDP growth of 2.3 percent, unemployment at 4.1 percent and PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for this year. A December update arrives with the December 9 decision. These are projections, not commitments, and participants revise them each quarter.
What is the prime rate after the October 2026 Fed meeting?
It is 7.00 percent, unchanged. The prime rate is not set by the Federal Reserve directly. Banks set it at the top of the federal funds target range plus three percentage points, so a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent produces a prime rate of 7.00 percent. The Fed’s H.15 release for October 26 published the bank prime loan rate at 7.00 percent, and the daily prime series carried the same value through October 27. It last moved on September 16, 2026, when the Committee raised the range.
What does the Fed’s hold mean for my credit card and loan payments?
A variable rate card APR has no mechanical reason to change this month, because it is quoted as prime plus a margin and prime did not move. The Fed’s G.19 release for August 2026 put the average rate across all credit card accounts at 21.19 percent and 22.36 percent on accounts assessed interest. Fixed rate loans already signed are unaffected either way. The practical risk sits in December: if the Committee delivers the quarter point its September projections imply, prime rises to 7.25 percent and variable balances reprice.
Watching the Road to December 9
The October decision changed no rate and plenty of signal. A unanimous Committee in September became a 10 to 2 Committee in October, and both dissents pushed the same direction. With the September median at 4.1 percent and headline inflation at 3.7 percent, December 9 is the date that matters. Track it through our current prime rate page, the Fed prime rate tracker and the Fed rate forecast for 2026.
References
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement.” October 28, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Implementation Note issued October 28, 2026.” federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement.” September 16, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “H.15 Selected Interest Rates.” Released October 27, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “Summary of Economic Projections.” September 16, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “G.19 Consumer Credit.” Released October 7, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “FOMC Calendars, Statements, and Minutes.” federalreserve.gov
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Price Index, September 2026.” October 14, 2026. bls.gov
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Bank Prime Loan Rate and Treasury Constant Maturity series.” fred.stlouisfed.org
