The Treasury sold $79 billion of six-month bills on Monday at a high discount rate of 3.885 percent, the highest six-month bill rate since July 27, and primary dealers were left holding 40.0 percent of the sale, their largest share since December 2025. The auction settles on September 3 and matures on March 4, 2027. It drew $212.8 billion in total bids for a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, the thinnest cover on a six-month bill since June 29. Indirect bidders, the category that captures foreign central banks and other overseas accounts, took $36.5 billion, or 46.2 percent of the offering, their smallest slice since December 29, 2025. Treasury sold another $92 billion of 13-week bills the same morning at 3.770 percent. Bills are the shortest debt the government issues, so their yields read as a direct wager on where the federal funds rate is going. At an investment rate of 4.018 percent, Monday’s six-month bill pays about 39 basis points more than the 3.63 percent effective federal funds rate, and it matures only after four more Federal Reserve meetings. The prime rate sits at 6.75 percent, and every one of those four meetings can move it.
Key Takeaways
- Treasury’s 26-week bill priced at a 3.885 percent high discount rate on August 31, a five-week high.
- Bid-to-cover fell to 2.63, the weakest six-month bill cover since June 29, 2026.
- Indirect bidders took 46.2 percent of the offering, the smallest share since December 2025.
- Primary dealers absorbed 40.0 percent of the accepted amount, the most since December 2025.
- The bill’s 4.018 percent investment rate sits 39 basis points above effective fed funds.
What the August 31 Bill Auction Showed
TreasuryDirect results show the 26-week bill, CUSIP 912797WD5, stopped at a 3.885 percent high discount rate. That is 9.5 basis points above the 3.790 percent that the same maturity fetched on August 24, and it reverses the drift that had carried the rate down to 3.780 percent on August 17. The low accepted rate was 3.760 percent and the median was 3.840 percent, a 12.5 basis point spread between the most and least aggressive accepted bids. Bidders at the high rate received 49.27 percent of what they asked for. Treasury accepted $83.8 billion against a $79 billion offering once noncompetitive and Federal Reserve add-on bids were counted, and the bill priced at 98.035917 per $100 of face value.
The companion 13-week bill, CUSIP 912797VA2, stopped at 3.770 percent with a 2.77 bid-to-cover on a $92 billion offering. It matures December 3, 2026. Both bills settle Wednesday, September 3. Together the two sales raised $181.3 billion in gross proceeds against $473.0 billion of submitted bids. Nothing in the pair was a failed auction. Cover ratios above 2.5 are ordinary, and Treasury sold every bill it intended to sell. The signal is in the price and the distribution rather than in the size, because a bill sale that clears at a higher rate with fewer end investors is telling you what the buy side thinks the Federal Reserve does next.
Who Bought, and Who Was Left Holding It
Treasury sorts accepted bids into three buckets. Indirect bidders route orders through a dealer and are the closest public proxy for foreign central banks, sovereign funds and asset managers. Direct bidders buy in their own name. Primary dealers are the two dozen firms obligated to bid at every auction, which makes their share the residual: the more the dealers take, the less real demand showed up. On Monday’s six-month bill, indirect bidders took $36.5 billion, direct bidders $7.2 billion, and primary dealers $33.5 billion. That put the dealer share of accepted competitive bids at 40.0 percent, up from 26.7 percent a week earlier and the highest reading since December 29, 2025.
The indirect side tells the same story from the other direction. At 46.2 percent of the offering, overseas and institutional participation was down from 58.6 percent the week before and 63.2 percent on August 17. The 13-week bill saw a milder version, with indirect takedown of 50.5 percent against 57.8 percent a week earlier and a dealer share of 37.1 percent, its highest since July 6. Weak indirect demand in bills has been a recurring feature of 2026, and it lands against a federal debt stock of $40.10 trillion as of August 28, a balance that Treasury has to keep rolling week after week regardless of who shows up.
Why the Bill Curve Is Pricing a Hike
The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on July 29, and the effective federal funds rate has printed 3.63 percent every day since. Monday’s six-month bill carries a 4.018 percent investment rate, roughly 39 basis points above that. A bill that yields materially more than the overnight rate it is competing against only makes sense if buyers expect the overnight rate to rise before the bill matures. The maturity date does the rest of the arithmetic. March 4, 2027 falls after the September 15 and 16, October 27 and 28, and December 8 and 9 meetings this year, plus the January 26 and 27 meeting in 2027.
The secondary market agrees. The six-month constant maturity yield closed August 28 at 4.02 percent, the three-month at 3.90 percent and the one-year at 4.15 percent, an upward slope across the entire bill sector. Two-year notes ended the same session at 4.34 percent after jumping 14 basis points in a single day, and the 10-year finished at 4.73 percent. Chair Kevin Warsh told the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole on August 28 that he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive,” and warned that inflation is not necessarily mean reverting. Short rates moved on it. The Treasury yield curve now slopes upward from the front end out, which is what a market braced for tightening looks like.
What This Changes for Your Money
Nothing about a bill auction changes a consumer rate on its own. The transmission runs through the prime rate, which banks set at 300 basis points above the top of the fed funds target range and which has held at 6.75 percent since December 11, 2025. If the Federal Reserve raises by a quarter point on September 16, prime goes to 7.00 percent within a day or two, and variable products repriced off prime follow almost immediately. That includes credit card APRs, home equity lines of credit and most variable-rate personal loans. Fixed products do not reprice, which is the practical argument for locking a rate you are already comfortable with rather than waiting.
Savers get the other side of the trade. A six-month Treasury bill paying a 4.018 percent investment rate is the benchmark banks must beat to keep deposits, and it is exempt from state and local income tax, which raises its effective yield in high-tax states. Compare it against the leading CD rates and high-yield savings accounts before committing cash. Mortgage borrowers sit further away from this. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.66 percent in the week ended August 27 and tracks the 10-year Treasury and mortgage spreads rather than the bill curve, so current mortgage rates can move independently of a September decision.
Pro Tip
If you are parking cash for less than a year, ladder it. Buy a four-week, a 13-week and a 26-week bill in equal amounts rather than committing everything to one maturity. Each rung matures into whatever the Federal Reserve has done by then, so you capture a hike if it lands and you are not locked in if it does not. TreasuryDirect sells bills in $100 increments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the 6 month Treasury bill rate today?
The most recent six-month Treasury bill auction, held August 31, 2026, cleared at a high discount rate of 3.885 percent, which converts to an investment rate of 4.018 percent. In the secondary market, the six-month constant maturity yield closed at 4.02 percent on August 28. The two numbers differ because the auction rate is a discount rate on face value while the constant maturity series is quoted on a bond-equivalent basis. Treasury auctions new 26-week bills every Monday.
What is the Treasury bill rate today across all maturities?
As of the August 28 close, the three-month constant maturity yield was 3.90 percent, the six-month was 4.02 percent and the one-year was 4.15 percent. At auction on August 31 the 13-week bill stopped at 3.770 percent and the 26-week at 3.885 percent. Rates rise as maturity lengthens across the bill sector right now, which is the shape you get when investors expect policy rates to move higher rather than lower over the coming year.
What is the best Treasury bill to buy right now?
That depends on when you need the money, not on which bill posts the highest number. The 26-week bill pays the most among the standard short maturities at the moment, but it locks your cash until March 2027 and gives up the chance to reinvest at a higher rate if the Federal Reserve tightens in September. Shorter bills pay less and reprice sooner. A ladder across four-week, 13-week and 26-week maturities avoids having to guess. Nothing here is individual investment advice.
What is the 6 week Treasury bill rate today?
The six-week bill last sold on August 25, 2026 at a 3.650 percent high discount rate with a bid-to-cover of 2.71 on a $95 billion offering. Treasury also sold four-week bills at 3.650 percent and eight-week bills at 3.670 percent on August 27. Those very short maturities sit close to the 3.63 percent effective federal funds rate because they mature before the September Federal Reserve meeting can change anything.
What is the 1 year Treasury rate today?
The one-year constant maturity yield closed at 4.15 percent on August 28, 2026. The most recent 52-week bill auction, on August 4, cleared at a 3.880 percent high discount rate and a 4.054 percent investment rate with a 3.62 bid-to-cover. Treasury auctions 52-week bills roughly every four weeks rather than weekly. The one-year sits 52 basis points above effective fed funds, a wider gap than the six-month, reflecting the extra meetings it spans.
Will my credit card APR go up if the Fed hikes in September?
Almost certainly, and quickly. Variable credit card APRs are written as prime plus a margin, so a quarter-point increase in the federal funds target lifts prime from 6.75 percent to 7.00 percent and your APR by the same 25 basis points. Most issuers apply it within one or two billing cycles, and the usual 45 day advance notice does not apply when the increase comes from a change in the index. Fixed-rate balances and existing installment loans are not affected. Paying down revolving balances before September 16 is the only reliable hedge.
Watching Next
Treasury sells $52 billion of 52-week bills and $85 billion of six-week bills on Tuesday, both settling September 3, and the 52-week result is the next clean read on how far out the market is pricing tightening. Everything now points at the September 15 and 16 decision. Track the policy path on our Fed rate forecast page, the meeting calendar on the Fed meeting schedule, and the borrowing that drives all of this supply on the national debt tracker.
References
- U.S. Treasury. 26-Week Bill Auction Results, August 31, 2026.
- U.S. Treasury. 13-Week Bill Auction Results, August 31, 2026.
- U.S. Treasury. Auction Announcements, Data and Results.
- Federal Reserve Board. H.15 Selected Interest Rates.
- Federal Reserve Board. FOMC Meeting Calendars.
- Kevin Warsh. In Our Time, Jackson Hole, August 28, 2026.
- FRED. 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Rate.
- FRED. Effective Federal Funds Rate.
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. Debt to the Penny.
