Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule & Prime Rate Decision Dates

2026 FOMC Meeting Schedule

The Federal Reserve publishes the FOMC meeting schedule a year in advance. Here are all 8 meetings for 2026 with market expectations for each:

★ = Meeting includes updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and “dot plot.” These are the highest-impact meetings because they reveal individual FOMC members’ rate forecasts for the coming years.

How FOMC Meetings Work

Each FOMC meeting follows a structured two-day format set by the Federal Reserve Board:

Day 1 (Tuesday): Staff presentations on economic conditions, financial markets, and the outlook. FOMC members discuss their views on the economy, inflation, and employment. No public statements are released.

Day 2 (Wednesday): The committee votes on the federal funds rate target range. At exactly 2:00 PM ET, the Fed releases a policy statement with the rate decision and forward guidance language. At 2:30 PM, the Fed Chair holds a press conference answering questions from financial journalists.

Who votes: The FOMC has 12 voting members: the 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and 5 of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents (the NY Fed president always votes; the other 4 rotate annually). All 19 participants contribute to the discussion and dot plot projections. The current Board members include Chair Jerome Powell.

The dot plot (SEP meetings only): At 4 of the 8 meetings (marked with ★), the Fed releases the Summary of Economic Projections, including the “dot plot” — a chart showing each FOMC participant’s forecast for the federal funds rate at year-end for the current year, next year, and two years out. The median dot is the market’s primary signal for the rate path ahead. Review the rate trajectory with our Prime Rate Forecast Calculator.

2024–2025 FOMC Rate Decisions

The most recent easing cycle has been one of the most aggressive since 2020. Here is every FOMC decision since the first cut in September 2024:

Total easing: 1.75 percentage points in five cuts over 15 months. The September 2024 “jumbo” 50bp cut was the largest single move since March 2020. For the full historical timeline, see our Prime Rate History page.

What to Watch Before Each Meeting

The FOMC does not surprise the market. Rate decisions are heavily telegraphed through data releases and Fed speeches in the weeks before each meeting. Here are the key indicators to watch:

CPI and PCE inflation. The Fed targets 2% inflation measured by core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures). If core PCE is above 2.5%, the Fed is unlikely to cut. If it is trending toward 2%, cuts become more likely. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI monthly, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases PCE data.

Employment data. The monthly jobs report (first Friday of each month) shows nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth. A weakening labor market supports rate cuts; strong employment growth supports holding.

CME FedWatch. The CME FedWatch Tool translates federal funds futures into meeting-by-meeting probability estimates. If FedWatch shows 80%+ probability of a cut, the market has already priced it in. If it shows 50/50, the meeting outcome is genuinely uncertain.

Fed speeches. FOMC members give public speeches and interviews between meetings. Hawkish language (“need to see more progress on inflation”) signals a hold. Dovish language (“risks are balanced,” “labor market softening”) signals openness to cutting. The Fed’s speech calendar tracks all upcoming appearances.

How FOMC Decisions Affect Your Rates

The speed at which an FOMC rate decision flows through to your accounts depends on the product:

For detailed analysis of how each product responds, see our dedicated guides: credit cards, mortgages/HELOCs, business loans, and personal loans.

When Is the Next Fed Meeting?

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for May 6–7, 2026. The rate decision and policy statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, May 7, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. This is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no updated economic projections or dot plot will be released — the committee’s forward guidance will come entirely from the statement language and Powell’s remarks.

Markets currently price in an approximately 85% probability of a rate hold at 3.50%–3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If the Fed does hold, the prime rate will remain at 6.75%, and borrowers with variable-rate products — credit cards, HELOCs, and SBA 7(a) loans — should not expect any payment changes until at least the June meeting. The key data to watch before May is the April CPI report (released May 13) and the April jobs report (released May 2), as these two indicators will heavily influence whether the committee discusses a June cut in its May statement.

What Is the Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule for 2026?

The FOMC meets 8 times per year on a pre-announced schedule published by the Federal Reserve Board. For 2026, the complete meeting dates are: January 28–29, March 17–18 (with SEP/dot plot), May 6–7, June 16–17 (SEP), July 28–29, September 15–16 (SEP), October 27–28, and December 15–16 (SEP). The four SEP meetings — marked with a star (★) in the schedule table above — are the highest-impact for markets because they include the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, giving the clearest signal on the Fed’s rate path.

If you are timing a major financial decision around interest rates — such as refinancing a mortgage, locking a HELOC rate, or applying for a personal loan — the SEP meetings provide the most forward guidance. Non-SEP meetings (May, July, October) can still deliver rate changes, but they typically confirm or maintain the trajectory set at the previous dot-plot meeting rather than charting a new course.

What Did the Fed Decide at the Last Meeting?

At the March 18–19, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, keeping the prime rate at 6.75%. Chair Powell cited elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty — particularly the Iran conflict — as reasons to pause the easing cycle that delivered five rate cuts between September 2024 and December 2025. The single dissent came from a regional Fed president who favored a 25-basis-point cut, arguing that the labor market had softened enough to justify continued easing.

The updated March dot plot still projects one more 25-basis-point cut in 2026, which would bring the fed funds rate to 3.25%–3.50% and the prime rate to 6.50%. However, the committee lowered its GDP growth forecast slightly and raised its inflation estimate, signaling a more cautious stance. Markets interpreted the meeting as mildly hawkish, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.35%. For borrowers, the practical implication is that variable-rate costs are likely to stay flat through at least May, and the earliest realistic window for a rate cut is the June 16–17 meeting.

Why Did the Fed Hold Rates Steady?

The Fed paused its easing cycle in January and March 2026 for two primary reasons: sticky inflation and geopolitical risk. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, remains above the 2% target at approximately 2.6–2.8%, driven by persistent shelter costs and services inflation. Meanwhile, energy prices have been volatile due to Middle East tensions, making the committee reluctant to ease further until the inflation picture clears.

Additionally, the labor market — while gradually cooling — has not deteriorated enough to force the Fed’s hand. Unemployment sits at roughly 4.1%, and monthly job gains have averaged 150,000–180,000 over the past quarter. The committee’s dual mandate requires balancing price stability with maximum employment, and with employment still solid, the calculus favors patience on inflation rather than preemptive cuts. Powell emphasized in his March press conference that the committee wants to see “sustained progress toward 2%” before resuming the cutting cycle.

Will the Fed Cut Rates at the Next Meeting?

Probably not at May. The CME FedWatch Tool shows roughly an 85% probability of a rate hold at the May 6–7 meeting. For the Fed to cut in May, it would need to see a meaningful decline in inflation between now and then — specifically, an April CPI reading showing headline inflation dropping below 2.5% and core PCE trending decisively toward 2%. Given that the March inflation data came in slightly above expectations, a May cut is unlikely barring a significant economic shock.

The more likely window for the next cut is the June 16–17 meeting, where futures markets price in approximately 55–60% odds of a 25-basis-point reduction. June is also an SEP meeting, which gives the committee a natural opportunity to update its projections and use the dot plot to signal the rate path for the rest of 2026. If you are holding off on a major borrowing decision, June is the meeting to watch most closely.

How Many Times Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2026?

The FOMC’s own March 2026 dot plot projects one additional 25-basis-point cut this year, which would bring the fed funds rate to 3.25%–3.50% and the prime rate to 6.50%. However, futures markets are pricing in up to two cuts, most likely at the June and September meetings. The gap between the Fed’s guidance and market expectations reflects uncertainty about how quickly inflation will decline — if core PCE drops below 2.5% by mid-year, two cuts become very plausible.

For consumers, the practical range of outcomes is: best case, two cuts totaling 50 basis points, bringing the prime rate to 6.25% by year-end; base case, one cut of 25 basis points for a prime rate of 6.50%; worst case, zero cuts if inflation reaccelerates. If you carry variable-rate debt, the difference between one cut and two cuts on a $30,000 balance is roughly $75–$150 per year in interest savings. Track the real-time probability of each scenario with the CME FedWatch Tool.

What Will the Fed Decide at the Next Meeting?

At the May 6–7 meeting, the most likely outcome is a unanimous hold at 3.50%–3.75%. The committee will be weighing the April jobs report (released May 2) and the latest inflation readings, but it would take a dramatic shift in data for the Fed to act at a non-SEP meeting when it just held in March. Instead, watch the statement language for any changes to the phrase “the Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance” — a softening of that language would signal the door is opening for a June cut.

Powell’s press conference will be the main event. Reporters will press him on whether the committee discussed a cut at this meeting (a sign it was close) and on the inflation outlook. If Powell says the committee needs “a few more months of data,” that points to a September cut at the earliest. If he says something like “the next meeting is live,” markets will immediately price in a higher probability of a June cut, and borrowers should prepare for lower variable rates by mid-summer. Either way, fixed-rate products like mortgages and CDs are unlikely to move much on the May decision alone — those require a sustained shift in the 10-year Treasury yield, which depends on the broader rate path.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Fed Meeting Schedule

When is the next Federal Reserve meeting?

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 6–7, 2026, with the rate decision and policy statement released at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, May 7. A press conference with Chair Powell follows at 2:30 PM ET. Markets currently price in an 85% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, keeping the prime rate at 6.75%. This meeting does not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, so any forward guidance will come solely from the statement language and press conference remarks.

How many times does the Fed meet per year?

The FOMC meets 8 times per year on a pre-announced schedule, typically spaced 6–8 weeks apart. Four of those meetings (March, June, September, December) include the Summary of Economic Projections and the closely watched dot plot, making them the highest-impact meetings for markets. The Federal Reserve publishes the full calendar a year in advance. In extraordinary circumstances, the Fed can also call unscheduled emergency meetings — the last time this happened was March 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis, when the committee cut rates to near-zero in two emergency sessions.

When does the prime rate change after a Fed meeting?

The prime rate changes within one business day of an FOMC rate decision. If the Fed announces a cut at 2:00 PM on a Wednesday, major banks update their posted prime rate by Thursday morning. The prime rate is calculated as the federal funds rate upper bound plus 3 percentage points, so a 25-basis-point Fed cut automatically means a 25-basis-point drop in prime. Downstream effects vary by product: credit card rates adjust on the next billing cycle (typically 1–2 months), HELOCs within 30 days, auto loans on new originations only, and SBA loans at the next quarterly reset date.

What is the dot plot?

The dot plot is a chart released at 4 of the 8 FOMC meetings (March, June, September, December) that shows each of the 19 FOMC participants’ individual forecasts for where the federal funds rate will be at the end of the current year, the next two years, and the “longer run.” The median dot is what markets focus on most, as it represents the central tendency of the committee’s rate outlook. For example, the March 2026 dot plot shows the median projection at one more 25-basis-point cut this year. Investors and borrowers can use the dot plot alongside the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge whether market expectations align with the Fed’s own forecasts.

Will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

The FOMC’s own March 2026 dot plot projects one additional 25-basis-point cut this year, which would bring the fed funds rate to 3.25%–3.50% and the prime rate to 6.50%. However, futures markets price in up to two cuts, most likely at the June and September meetings. Whether the Fed actually delivers depends heavily on inflation data: if core PCE drops below 2.5%, the committee has room for two cuts, but if it stays above 2.7%, expect only one cut or none at all. Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices, could also delay action by keeping inflation expectations elevated.

How do I prepare for an FOMC meeting?

Start by checking the CME FedWatch Tool the week before the meeting to see the market-implied probability of a rate change. Then review the latest CPI and jobs data releases, as these are the two indicators the Fed weighs most heavily. If you have variable-rate debt (credit cards, HELOCs, adjustable-rate mortgages), a cut means your payments will decrease — potentially saving hundreds per year. If a hold is expected, no changes to your financial plan are needed. For major decisions like refinancing a mortgage or locking a fixed-rate personal loan, wait until after the meeting for certainty on the rate direction.

What did the Fed do at the last meeting?

At the March 18–19, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, keeping the prime rate at 6.75%. Chair Powell cited elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty — particularly the Iran conflict — as reasons to pause the easing cycle that delivered five cuts between September 2024 and December 2025. The updated dot plot still projects one more cut in 2026, but the committee lowered its GDP growth forecast slightly and raised its inflation estimate, signaling a more cautious stance. Markets interpreted the meeting as mildly hawkish, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.35%.

How many times will the Fed cut rates in 2026?

The FOMC’s March 2026 dot plot projects one additional 25-basis-point cut this year, which would bring the fed funds rate to 3.25%–3.50% and the prime rate to 6.50%. However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in up to two cuts — most likely at the June and September meetings. The actual number depends on inflation data: if core PCE drops below 2.5%, the Fed has room for two cuts; if it stays above 2.7%, expect only one or zero. Borrowers with variable-rate products should watch the May and June CPI reports closely, as these will largely determine whether the Fed acts in June or waits until September.

How do Fed rate decisions affect mortgage rates?

The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its decisions have a strong indirect effect on where they land. Lenders price 30-year fixed mortgages off the 10-year Treasury yield, which responds to the Fed’s rate moves and — more importantly — its forward guidance on the rate path ahead. When the Fed signals future cuts, Treasury yields typically fall and mortgage rates follow. However, mortgage rates also depend on inflation expectations and investor demand for mortgage-backed securities. Since the Fed began cutting in September 2024, the 30-year fixed rate has stayed elevated near 6.3%–6.5% because long-term inflation expectations remain sticky, limiting the pass-through from Fed cuts to mortgage borrowers.

How do Fed rate decisions affect personal loans?

Personal loan rates respond to the Fed more directly than mortgage rates because lenders set their pricing based on the current prime rate, which equals the fed funds upper bound plus 3 percentage points. When the Fed cuts, lenders lower the rates they offer to new borrowers — though existing fixed-rate loans stay at their original rate. Since the Fed cut five times from September 2024 to December 2025, the average personal loan APR has dropped from roughly 12.8% to 12.26%, saving a typical $30,000 borrower about $80 per year. If the Fed delivers one more cut in 2026, expect new personal loan offers to improve further. Compare current rates at Compare Best Personal Loans.

Related Resources

• Current prime rate: 6.75%
• The Prime Rate: Complete Guide
• Prime Rate Forecast 2026
• Prime Rate History
• Prime Rate vs Fed Funds vs SOFR

References

• Federal Reserve — FOMC Meeting Calendar
• Federal Reserve — FOMC Statements and Minutes
• Federal Reserve — Board of Governors
• Federal Reserve — Speech Calendar
• CME Group — FedWatch Tool
• BLS — Consumer Price Index
• BEA — PCE Price Index
• BLS — Employment Situation Report
• FRED — Bank Prime Loan Rate
• Federal Reserve — H.15 Selected Interest Rates

Calculators

• Prime Rate Impact Calculator
• Rate History & Forecast Calculator
• Variable vs Fixed Rate Calculator
• Credit Card Calculator
• Loan Payment Calculator
• Savings Calculator