The Fed held $524.9 billion of Treasury bills on August 5, up $329.4 billion since balance sheet runoff ended, while reserve balances stalled near $3 trillion.

Treasury will auction $125 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities on August 11 to 13, holding coupon sizes flat as Q3 borrowing climbs to $739 billion.

U.S. public debt reached $39.84 trillion on July 30, 2026, just $158.9 billion below $40 trillion, as the average interest rate on the debt climbed to 3.41 percent.

U.S. labor costs rose 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026, above forecasts, keeping wage-driven inflation in play as the Fed holds and the prime rate stays at 6.75%.

June core PCE inflation eased to 3.3 percent, its first cooling in months, but a divided Fed that held rates on July 29 keeps the prime rate at 6.75 percent.

Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes on July 27 at a 4.408% high yield with a 2.28 bid-to-cover, the weakest of three note sales this week as the Fed meets.

The Fed opens its two-day July meeting Tuesday with a rate hike a live possibility. Futures put hike odds near 34% as oil above $100 revives inflation fears.

The U.S. prime rate is set to hold at 6.75 percent as markets price a fifth straight Fed hold on July 29, 2026. Here is what a pause means for your debt and savings.

Brent crude topped $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since January 2025, lifting September Fed rate-hike odds to about 82% as prime holds at 6.75%.