Treasury 20-Year Auction Clears 5.42% as 10-Year Closes at 5.00%

Treasury's 20-year bond auction cleared at a record 5.420 percent with the weakest indirect share since February, and the 10-year closed at 5.00 percent.

Treasury's 20-year bond auction cleared at a record 5.420 percent with the weakest indirect share since February, and the 10-year closed at 5.00 percent.

Treasury sold 13-week bills at 3.970 percent and 26-week bills at 4.060 percent on September 14, a 17 basis point weekly jump, as the FOMC opened its two-day September meeting.

Federal debt fell to $40.048 trillion on September 10, down $127.9 billion from the August 31 record, as Treasury drew its cash balance at the Fed down by $205.4 billion.

The 2-year to 10-year Treasury spread narrowed to 33 basis points on September 11, its tightest since July 1, as the front end repriced before the September 15 and 16 FOMC meeting.

Core inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in August, the lowest since March 2021, but a 0.3 percent monthly gain pushed September Fed hike odds above 65 percent.

Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.308 percent on September 10, the highest stop since 2001, and indirect bidders took a record 79.3 percent.

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

The Federal Reserve's G.19 release shows consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July 2026, pushing revolving card balances to a record $1.3572 trillion a week before the September 16 FOMC decision.

Treasury held $967.9 billion at the Fed in the week ended September 2, a four month high, pulling bank reserves to $2.895 trillion, their lowest in 39 weeks.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.