
Core CPI Falls to 2.4%, Lowest Since March 2021, as Hike Odds Top 65%
Core inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in August, the lowest since March 2021, but a 0.3 percent monthly gain pushed September Fed hike odds above 65 percent.
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Core inflation cooled to 2.4 percent in August, the lowest since March 2021, but a 0.3 percent monthly gain pushed September Fed hike odds above 65 percent.

Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.308 percent on September 10, the highest stop since 2001, and indirect bidders took a record 79.3 percent.

Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a 4.834 percent high yield on September 9, 2026, the highest 10-year auction stop since August 2007, on a 2.71 bid-to-cover ratio.

The Federal Reserve’s G.19 release shows consumer credit rose $18.1 billion in July 2026, pushing revolving card balances to a record $1.3572 trillion a week before the September 16 FOMC decision.

Treasury held $967.9 billion at the Fed in the week ended September 2, a four month high, pulling bank reserves to $2.895 trillion, their lowest in 39 weeks.

The U.S. prime rate has held at 6.75% for 270 days. After August payrolls rose 162,000, futures price roughly even odds of a hike on September 16.
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